CT Megathread: Stefanowski skips first debate

[smoltchanov]

Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

[smoltchanov]

Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state.

Here i fully agree. Republicans in Connecticut can't win with Republican vote only. It's not Utah or Idaho. Regretfully, even in Connecticut, where considerable number of moderate Republicans are elected for different offices (state legislature, first of all) there is rightward lean of late. This year governor candidate is, let's say, "moderate conservative", while LG candidate - "solid conservative". IMHO - somewhat "too much" for this state.

[smoltchanov]

I had the Governor's race as Lean D when I still thought there were decent odds the Republicans nominated a sane moderate.
Considering moving it to likely... I don't think someone with views like Stefanowski's is electable here, especially in a midterm with a Republican president.

With a sane moderate i would have it as Tossup, because Malloy serves as counterbalance to Trump. But with more-or-less conservative - at least Lean D....

[smoltchanov]

Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state.

Here i fully agree. Republicans in Connecticut can't win with Republican vote only. It's not Utah or Idaho. Regretfully, even in Connecticut, where considerable number of moderate Republicans are elected for different offices (state legislature, first of all) there is rightward lean of late. This year governor candidate is, let's say, "moderate conservative", while LG candidate - "solid conservative". IMHO - somewhat "too much" for this state.

If you look at the rest of country were the GOP gained huge numbers during the Obama years it’s actually quite surprising the republicans couldn’t have gained more ground especially with Malloy. It shows how toxic the Republican Party is in the state.  

Candidate's qualities still matter. Jodi Rell, IMHO, would win this year governor election rather easily...

[smoltchanov]

Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state.

Here i fully agree. Republicans in Connecticut can't win with Republican vote only. It's not Utah or Idaho. Regretfully, even in Connecticut, where considerable number of moderate Republicans are elected for different offices (state legislature, first of all) there is rightward lean of late. This year governor candidate is, let's say, "moderate conservative", while LG candidate - "solid conservative". IMHO - somewhat "too much" for this state.

If you look at the rest of country were the GOP gained huge numbers during the Obama years it’s actually quite surprising the republicans couldn’t have gained more ground especially with Malloy. It shows how toxic the Republican Party is in the state.  

Candidate's qualities still matter. Jodi Rell, IMHO, would win this year governor election rather easily...

Depends which Jodi Rell she was unpopular when she left which is why she never didn’t run for re election. Her LT governor Michael Fedele lost the gubernatorial primary in 2010 and could even win the mayors race in Stamford in 2013 were he was favored.

It's impossible to be more unpopular then Malloy, IMHO))))

[smoltchanov]

Very good news for CT Democrats. There was probably some ticket of Republicans that could have made this a really competitive race, but Stefanowski/Markley is not that ticket by a long shot. Malloy’s unpopularity opens the door, but not just anyone can walk in. At least Lean D feels appropriate for now, and anyone worried about Dems chances here should feel better with these candidates.

What could that "competitive ticket" be?

[smoltchanov]

Very good news for CT Democrats. There was probably some ticket of Republicans that could have made this a really competitive race, but Stefanowski/Markley is not that ticket by a long shot. Malloy’s unpopularity opens the door, but not just anyone can walk in. At least Lean D feels appropriate for now, and anyone worried about Dems chances here should feel better with these candidates.

What could that "competitive ticket" be?

Boughton/Stewart comes to mind.

Thanks! Interesting, that both of them finished second)))

[smoltchanov]

Trump just endorsed Stefanowski for governor. Good job CT republicans for injecting Trump into the race.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1029724286121074689?s=21

Well, yes. Don't think, that Trump is very popular in Connecticut, and his support is so valuable...

[smoltchanov]

I had the Governor's race as Lean D when I still thought there were decent odds the Republicans nominated a sane moderate.
Considering moving it to likely... I don't think someone with views like Stefanowski's is electable here, especially in a midterm with a Republican president.

Please tell me one view that is so abhorrent at this point the electorate won't vote for him

After reading his site i, probably, can give one: he is too (IMHO) enamored with Reagan/Laffer methods of managing economy... Very right-wing in their essence...