AL-SEN 2020: Doug Jones vs. The Entire Political Establishment of Alabama

[smoltchanov]

Likely R. Not hopeless (Jones is a good and relatively moderate, though not sufficiently moderate for conservative Alabama, and Republicans may nominate an extremist), but highly unlikely if Republicans nominate even minimally competent conservative (Byrne?). Under normal circumstances Democratic candidate gets about 38-40% in Alabama (all Blacks plus some liberal and moderate whites), but it's very difficult to get even 45%. All "old school conservative Democrats" and their descendants are Republicans now (in many cases - "as fits white man and honorable white woman").....

[smoltchanov]

There’s no point having democratic senators if you don’t vote against someone who could push the court to the right for the next 40 years.

It depends from Senator to Senator.
In case of Doug Jones, he has full license to do whatever he wants because he ran and won as a liberal.

Supreme Court nominations are such a critical, influential, and long term function of the Senate that they should, if anything, be the one reliable vote even vulnerable Senators cast with their party. On the other hand, if the votes (Collins and Murkowski) aren't there, it would probably be foolish to make vulnerable Senators even more vulnerable. I think it boils down to tangible effect. If the votes  from moderate Republicans aren't there, by all means the red state Dems should vote for the nominee. If the votes ARE there, then those red state Dems better vote to block, because otherwise they're completely and utterly useless.

Here i fully agree. Your vote must matter... If not - "sticking with the party anyway" is foolishness, if not idiocy.

[smoltchanov]

Jones doesn’t need to vote for Trump's Supreme Court pick in order to win reelection. He ran and won as a pragmatic liberal, and red state voters care more about personality/charisma/campaign and candidate quality/perceived authenticity/etc. than random votes their Senator cast years or months before election day. Tester and McCaskill are the most liberal red state Democrats and still doing much better in polling than some other, more moderate Democrats right now. The importance of firing up your base isn’t something that should be underestimated.

This is certainly what I care about. I would rather have a Senator who understands the state well and represents it to the best of his or her ability, than a Senator who doesn't, regardless of which party they belong to.

Me too. And that means, that Senator from Alabama must vote conservatively on at least some issues, and  Senator from Massachussetts - liberally on at  least some issues, their party notwithstanding.