Ron DeSantis retiring (running for Governor)

[smoltchanov]

Unsurprising. Considering that McSally's retirement is a matter of when, not if, there are already as many Republican retirements as in 2008.

+1. But i wouldn't want to be Adam Putnam now...

[smoltchanov]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

It moved right since then, so - not too likely. It's not one of those suburban districts Democrats target now..

[smoltchanov]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

It moved right since then, so - not too likely. It's not one of those suburban districts Democrats target now..

Except it is on the DCCC target list.

List is big. Not all districts from it will be competitive half-year from now.

[smoltchanov]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

It moved right since then, so - not too likely. It's not one of those suburban districts Democrats target now..

Except it is on the DCCC target list.

Voted 58.6-41.4% for DeSantis in 2016 when he ran against an underfunded Democratic opponent.  I'd call this a 'second tier' opportunity for Democrats.

Probably - 'third tier'. Nancy Soderberg didn't impressed too much during her state Senate race 5 years ago. And besides her bench is minimal (one Black freshman state representative).

[smoltchanov]

This seat can be competitive, but it won't.

Exactly my feelings. The ideal Democratic candidate here would, probably, be white moderate with working class roots, but good connections to fundraise (district isn't that cheap either). And i don't see anyone even remotely close to that desctiption, running. Of course, if Republicans nominate "a local Roy Moore" the district will instantly be "in play", but i don't think that Republicans will do it in every district...