Mississippi Megathread 2.0

[smoltchanov]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

In Mississippi you sometimes can win even without that...

[smoltchanov]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

Looking at his ACU ratings - pragmatic conservative. Probably - more Cochran-style then McDaniel-style

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

Looking at his ACU ratings - pragmatic conservative. Probably - more Cochran-style then McDaniel-style

Yes. He endorsed Kasich in 2016 and Huntsman in 2012. Was the only Republican to vote against HB1523/LGBT bill on the first passage (two others joined on the second passage). Also voted against the massive tax cut last session.

I hope he loses badly, but then he keeps on making damage in the Legislature...

You may get an opposite of your wish, don't forget it))))

[smoltchanov]

Frank Corder is a total hack, but I just stumbled upon this article. He seems to think Hood will not run 2019.

http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/45674/

May be. Hood never lost before and thought about retirement in 2015. Both these factors push him to finally retire in 2019, instead of running uphill race...

[smoltchanov]

Frank Corder is a total hack, but I just stumbled upon this article. He seems to think Hood will not run 2019.

http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/45674/

May be. Hood never lost before and thought about retirement in 2015. Both these factors push him to finally retire in 2019, instead of running uphill race...

Is it really that uphill? It's harder to tie him to national D's now, and he seems to have broad support from Northern Mississippi whites. He might as well go out in a blaze of glory if he wanted to retire anyways.

We are not him, so - we can't know for sure. But even his support among North Mississippi whites gradually decreases. Of course - it's much higher, then, say, Obama's or Hillary's, but - still.....

[smoltchanov]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

Nevertheless Eaves got better percentage then DuPree... And against incumbent...

[smoltchanov]

Well, i tried to look at NE corner of Mississippi (arbitrary taking 4 counties: Alcorn, Itawamba. Prentiss and Tishomingo: all mostly white , with Blacks comprising from 3 to 14% of county population) and compared percentages of last 4 Democratic gubernatorial candidates + Hood (last election) and Presley (the same). What i got?

Musgrove (2003): 59.97, 43.81, 49.74, 42.29
Eaves (2007): 40.79, 47.34, 52.01, 46.55
DuPree (2011): 27.47, 22.3, 29.64, 24.58
Gray (2015): 15.58, 12.05, 19.45, 17.28
Hood (2015): 50.65, 54.1, 54.31, 48.4
Presley (2015): 54.79, 71.6, 69.79, 64.21

Big difference, isn't it? A "white conservative populists" (moderate to moderate-conservative on economy, solid conservative on social issues) faring from moderately good to very good, blacks - well, not so much (to be a minimally politically correct)))). Why?)))))

And one additional question: what sense does it make for people like Nick Bain (conservative populist of the above mentioned type from Alcorn county) to stay Democrat? In a statewide race "D" after name is more likely to be minus, not plus, with voting records like Bain's such people are acceptable for Mississippi Republican party (most of Mississippi's conservative Democrats had rather successfull career after switching, except those who were initially elected from minority heavy (35% or more) districts), as Democrats they are in perpetual minority in Legislature, and even in their caucus (usually - Black dominated and substantially more liberal) they are a minority. In fact - that reasoning applies to almost all remaining right-of-center Democratic legislators from the South. Bain's neighbor (Jodi Steverson) with similar voting record already switched, BTW))))). It's easy to understand why Deborah Dawkins (white, but solid liberal) is a Democrat, but these???

[smoltchanov]

Is there anywhere I can find a map of the MS state house? How many White conservadems are still around and kicking?

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=2312

By my count there are about 10 whites in  House Democratic caucus. But only 3-4 of them can be called moderate conservatives (and even them are much less conservative then some Democrats a decade ago, not mentioning earlier times): Bain, Sullivan, M. Evans and, may be,  Miles. As i said formulating my question above - there is very little initiative for a white conservative to be a Democrat in the South now. On the other hand - i count about dozen recent party switchers (all - formerly conservative Democrats) sitting in Mississippi House as Republicans now. It's among them where you can find real conservatives: Mettetal, Rogers, J. Smith, Bounds, White, Read and some others... (and few in state Senate too)

[smoltchanov]

Is there anywhere I can find a map of the MS state house? How many White conservadems are still around and kicking?

Can't find a map, but Michael Evans, Nick Bain, and Tom Miles are the three big conservadems in the House. In the Senate, you have Bob Dearing and JP Wilemon.

Both Dearing and Wilemon are old, and will retire soon (may be - in 2019). Then it will be a first time that Senate Democratic caucus in Mississippi will have zero conservative Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Bain might switch if Barker vacates his House seat and a Democrat replaces him. In this case, the GOP would remain at a 74R-48D supermajority. 2015 election Republicans finished with a 73R-49D advantage but Stevenson switched and got them to the magic number (74).

Well, as i see from Barker's electoral statistics, he never won an election with less then 62.5% of vote. So, i see little chances of it going Democratic in low-turnout special....

[smoltchanov]

Bain might switch if Barker vacates his House seat and a Democrat replaces him. In this case, the GOP would remain at a 74R-48D supermajority. 2015 election Republicans finished with a 73R-49D advantage but Stevenson switched and got them to the magic number (74).

Well, as i see from Barker's electoral statistics, he never won an election with less then 62.5% of vote. So, i see little chances of it going Democratic in low-turnout special....

Not an exact number (split precincts), but Clinton won this district something like 53-42-5. Barker has crossover appeal with white liberals (i.e. college faculty/staff, grad students, millennials, etc) and some blacks.

I still think the Republican would be favored, but a Democrat would at least have a chance (25-30% or so).

Interesting. Thanks!