Who will control the Senate after 2018?

[smoltchanov]

Republicans, of course. In 2012 Democrats won everything feasible and then some, so 2018 will be dire. But 2020 will be banner year for them in Senate.....

[smoltchanov]

Republicans, of course. In 2012 Democrats won everything feasible and then some, so 2018 will be dire. But 2020 will be banner year for them in Senate.....

Actually, they had a chance to win NV/AZ and some people thought NE as well, though that turned out to not be true. It would've been hilarious to see a Senate class with only 5 Republicans.

Banner year? I wouldn't really say that. Most seats the Republicans won in 2014 were in deep red territory that they'll hold easily in 2020. Democrats would be able to target CO/GA/IA/MT/NC and ME if Collins retires. Nowhere near as many potential targets as this year for instance, where Dems could plausibly net 10-12 seats if everything breaks their way (same for the GOP in 2018.) There's also not even any "gimme" seats, like IL this year, or SD/WV/MT in 2014.

5 or 6 is enough for me to call it "banner year". And this year i see ony 1-2 "gimme" seats, and D+4  (5 at most) shift in Senate for 50-50 or (in best case for Democrats) 51-49

[smoltchanov]

^ I never consider "best case scenario" to be realistic, except in case of really BIG wave. And i don't see a wave yet this year. Yes, Trump is unpopular, but Clinton is not popular too (just to lesser extent), and majority of voters will hold ther noses and vote NOT FOR Clinton or Trump, but - AGAINST Trump or Clinton.

Personally i consider Blunt, Portman and McCain to be rather strong favorites in their states, and Rubio and Burr - more narrow favorites too. Of course - something (big scandal) may happen, but in absence of it i would predict all of them win (albeit - many rather narrowly). So, for me there are Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin... I am reasonably sure Democrats will win last 2, and 2-3 of first 4

So, may be "banner" was too strong, but 2020 will be a good year for Democrats. 2018, on the contrary, may be bad or very bad...

[smoltchanov]

Lol at people who believe that democrats will only end up at 50-50 but already give republicans many pick ups in 2018. Apparently you can overperform and survive a wave only when you're a republican.

In fact - Republicans did NOT survive Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008. But recovered rather quickly))))

P.S. No, i don't see 54 Democratic Senators after November except in case Clinton wins by more then 12 points, and not too likely even then))))