Vermont Primary Poll-Phil Scott +45, Sue Minter +5 (June 26-29) EIG

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - more or less expected. Scott is much more well known and popular, but more conservative Lisman will get "solid conservatives", which exist even in Vermont. And he is advertising on TV. Galbraith was always relatively unpopular because of his style ("Alan Grayson of Vermont"), and Minter and Dunne are not too different politically - two "solid progressives"....

[smoltchanov]

Looks like Republicans will get their wish with Scott. I guess we'll see if split-ticketing can still be as strong this year as it was in 2008.

I'd rate both VT and WV Tossup. Gubernatorial elections are really not that partisan.

They're more partisan than they used to be. I certainly wouldn't rate WV a toss-up.

Jim Justice could certainly winkeep his loss to single digits... He was the best Ds could offer.

Fixed.

Is it a good practice to "fix" other person messages? I seriously doubt...

[smoltchanov]

Looks like Republicans will get their wish with Scott. I guess we'll see if split-ticketing can still be as strong this year as it was in 2008.

You think Scott could win with Trump at the top of the ticket? I give Scott a 35% of winning the Governors Race.

And i give 50% He is absolutely anti-Trump, absolutely moderate (by present day standards - even liberal for Republican), and will get a TON of crossover support. Whether that will be enough - another matter, but i consider his chances to be as good as of (still undetermined) Democratic nominee.. Even more so because i am not too impressed by ALL 3 Democratic candidates..