2016 Congressional Primaries

[smoltchanov]

Stutzman is not a conservative (Young - is). He is a right-wing wacko loonie....

[smoltchanov]

Stutzman is not a conservative (Young - is). He is a right-wing wacko loonie....

Stutzman is a conservative. Young is conservative but less than Stutzman. Neither are right-wing loonies. You're gonna love Banks.

I know that Indiana consistently supplies some of the best loonies to Congress...)))) Now it decided to try fanatic Banks....

[smoltchanov]

Stutzman is not a conservative (Young - is). He is a right-wing wacko loonie....

Stutzman is a conservative. Young is conservative but less than Stutzman. Neither are right-wing loonies. You're gonna love Banks.

I know that Indiana consistently supplies some of the best loonies to Congress...)))) Now it decided to try fanatic Banks....

Then in 2018 Rokita loses to Freedom Caucus/Ron Paul/Rand Paul/Mike Lee/Marlin Stutzman/Justin Amash/Ted Cruz backed JCL

Are you so proud to be in idiot's company?)))))

[smoltchanov]

Am I alone as a Republican who is perfectly fine with Banks but who would have serious reservations about Hollingsworth if he lived in that district?

I think Hollingsworth/Yoder starts out as Leans R at best, by the way, and Yoder has a very real chance at pulling this off.

Frankly speaking - they are essentially the same for me. Everything to the right of Richard Lugar is a solid "no-no" by my standards)) Even Coats and Young are only tolerable because there is nothing better...

[smoltchanov]

Stutzman is not a conservative (Young - is). He is a right-wing wacko loonie....

Stutzman is a conservative. Young is conservative but less than Stutzman. Neither are right-wing loonies. You're gonna love Banks.

I know that Indiana consistently supplies some of the best loonies to Congress...)))) Now it decided to try fanatic Banks....

Then in 2018 Rokita loses to Freedom Caucus/Ron Paul/Rand Paul/Mike Lee/Marlin Stutzman/Justin Amash/Ted Cruz backed JCL

Are you so proud to be in idiot's company?)))))

No idiots in that group.

It's your opinion. Mine is very different...

[smoltchanov]

Stutzman is not a conservative (Young - is). He is a right-wing wacko loonie....

Stutzman is a conservative. Young is conservative but less than Stutzman. Neither are right-wing loonies. You're gonna love Banks.

I know that Indiana consistently supplies some of the best loonies to Congress...)))) Now it decided to try fanatic Banks....

Then in 2018 Rokita loses to Freedom Caucus/Ron Paul/Rand Paul/Mike Lee/Marlin Stutzman/Justin Amash/Ted Cruz backed JCL

Are you so proud to be in idiot's company?)))))

No idiots in that group.

It's your opinion. Mine is very different...

They're the true mavericks

For you. And - ultra-right zealots for me. Let's agree to disagree, respect each other views and end this discussion...

[smoltchanov]

Stutzman is not a conservative (Young - is). He is a right-wing wacko loonie....

smoltchanov, meet JCL. I don't believe you're acquainted with him.

You are correct. But there is one difficulty: right now i spend almost all my time in Moscow because of family reasons. If i return - i will honestly try)))))). Though i have a cousin in Indiana)))

[smoltchanov]

Swinton is basically a right-winger and Utah Democrats are pretty liberal. Snow also seems to have attached herself to Bernie Sanders somewhat, who is popular with Dems there.

A tendency i noticed in many states and counties: if you stick to a party, which is in dire minority in your state/county - you (usually) stick to party's most "faithful" wing and vote accordingly. Some precincts in 99% Democratic (and liberal) parts of Brookline went for Cruz in Republican primary. And Democrats in, probably, most conservative Florida county (Holmes, in Panhandle) went for Sanders... So - not surprising that Utah Democrats tend to be liberal: for moderate it's better to try his/her  luck in Republican party, which gives better chances  for electoral success (good example - state Representative Rebecca Edwards, who just won her primary with 52% of vote - she will regularily "attract" more conservative opposition in primary).

[smoltchanov]

Swinton is basically a right-winger and Utah Democrats are pretty liberal. Snow also seems to have attached herself to Bernie Sanders somewhat, who is popular with Dems there.

A tendency i noticed in many states and counties: if you stick to a party, which is in dire minority in your state/county - you (usually) stick to party's most "faithful" wing and vote accordingly. Some precincts in 99% Democratic (and liberal) parts of Brookline went for Cruz in Republican primary. And Democrats in, probably, most conservative Florida county (Holmes, in Panhandle) went for Sanders... So - not surprising that Utah Democrats tend to be liberal: for moderate it's better to try his/her  luck in Republican party, which gives better chances  for electoral success (good example - state Representative Rebecca Edwards, who just won her primary with 52% of vote - she will regularily "attract" more conservative opposition in primary).

In some cases, like Utah, yeah. But the Florida Panhandle voters were Dixiecrats who always vote Republican in the general who wanted to stick it to the party/Obama/Hillary/the establishment. They weren't voting for Sanders because he was the most liberal. Notice how Martin O'Malley got very high vote shares as well.

Yes, i noticed that too. And agree that it was (in part, at least) a protest vote. But you will surely agree that O'Malley is hardly a "Dixiecrat" either...

P.S. The political history of Northern Florida deserves special book (or, at least, discussion). Only half century ago it was BOTH very Democratic AND very conservative (though, AFAIK, no ratings from that time exist)....... Quater century ago - Republican on Presidential level, mixed - on congressional, still mostly Democratic - on state legislative (and very much so - on local level) and, again - very conservative. Now - Republican on almost all levels, but local (where Democrats still have substantial residual strength), and, probably, even more conservative...

[smoltchanov]

^ IMHO - very unlikely, but after Cantor in 2014 i prefer to be cautious and don't deny such possibility outright..

[smoltchanov]

Bold prediction: Reality is somewhere between that and the polls that showed Ryan up 60-70 points.

Right now i expect Nehlen to get 30-35%.

[smoltchanov]

Looks like Alliegro is going to be the one to lose to Keating this year. The district (I think) is trending R, so I suppose he could use the opportunity to build up name recognition and campaign practice for a future run.

AFAIK, Alliegro is a far right tea-party man, so i doubt he will be win many elections in Massachusetts. Republicans can win MA-09 under very good environment, but not such Republicans as he is....

[smoltchanov]

The next primary is the NY-3 R redo on October 6th.

No.

"A “stunned” Philip Pidot is ending his bid for Congress after a federal appeals court on Wednesday reversed a decision to hold an unusual October primary against Republican Jack Martins.

The decision by the federal court ended the improbably and protracted bid by Pidot against Martins, a state senator."

So, we have to wait until November 8th with "primary" in Louisiana and general election elsewhere...