NY-03: Steve Israel retiring

[smoltchanov]

And this is a type of district which is of REAL interest to me. Unlike WA-07 there will be real alternatives between candidates, not dozen candidates with the same program....

[smoltchanov]

As competetive as Ca or Wa or NY really are, Dems will win these sort of districts. Especially, since Hilary is on ballot.

When i read your forecasts i always ask myself - how on Earth did it happen that Democrats don't have 10 seats majority in Senate and among Governors, and 50 seats majority in House?))))))))

[smoltchanov]

I'm not worried about this seat, unless the Dem candidate is terrible and the GOP one is awesome, it'll stay Democratic.

Every district below Dutchess/Ulster Counties in New York has a Democratic representative, except NY-13, which has every policeman, fireman & cranky Italian in NYC (not all Italians, just the conservative cranky ones), and Peter King's district, which will be up for grabs when he retires, which can't happen soon enough. That King didn't lose in '06 or '08 is a travesty.

Supposedly NY-1 has a GOP rep but I think that's a fluke from low turnout 2014 & Cuomo's underwhelming re-election. The far east end of the Island is extremely wealthy and socially liberal, Randy Altschuler Jr. will be swept out in the next Dem wave.

Ah, not many people live on the far east end of the Island. I do have this perception, that the Dem turnout oscillates more vis a vis Pub turnout between POTUS election year, and off year election cycles, than in most states, and Israel retiring now, was probably not an accident. Oh, and except for the seats that the Pubs now hold, and the Israel seat, every seat south of Dutchess, assuming that means you are excluding NY-18, which is mostly south of Dutchess and Ulster, but takes in a bit of both), is overwhelming Dem (or strong lean Dem in the case of NY-04).  

This is EVEN PVI district, isn't it? Yes, in presidential year. So, probably - Tilt D. But no more then that, and absolutely dependent on candidate's quality. So, if Republican recruiting will be better, it can easily become Tilt R....

[smoltchanov]

FWIW, Cook has the seat as tossup, Rothenberg as Tilt Dem, and Sabato as tossup.

Agree. With all three...

[smoltchanov]

Suozzi ran again in 2013 and it really wasn't close, but considering what has been going on with Mangano over the last few months the 13 loss might not really hurt him.  Either way Suozzi getting into the mix, he is clearly the biggest name on either side.

Many people (myself included) wanted him to go after King a few years back, but with re-districting changing the district lines a bit, he is no longer in that district.

The district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and certainly not socially conservative.  Ted Cruz would get absolutely obliterated on the top of the ticket which would likely have a downballot impact.

Its been a few years, but the only reason I can recall for Suozzi losing in 2009 was because Mangano promised to lower taxes (property in this case) and Nassau has some of the highest property taxes in the entire Country. If the race later this year is more focused on social issues like gun control and has much higher turnout than the dreadful 2014 election, then Suozzi is a shoe-in.

From 2008-2010 wasn't New York State something like 27 D to 2 R in Congress? We need to get back to that golden era. Especially upstate, there's too many Republican Reps up there. Sorry Torie

You are unlikely to get your wish, except in case of absolute Republican meltdown. King, Collins, Reed, Donovan  and Stefanik are difficult to beat. I wouldn't underestimate Katko either. And Hanna's district is not especially Democratic too. Zeldin and open Gibson seat - may be. But even that won't be easy..