ME-GOV 2018: Collins for Governor?

[smoltchanov]

I think you're all a bit too cocky ... King is left of center, but he's NOT a Democrat, and Maine has proved time and time again it's not a solidly Democratic state.  At the Presidential level, it has been lately, but we haven't sent a Democratic Senator to DC for quite a long time, and moderate Republicans can still be quite successful here (see Collins and Snowe).  Her successor is likely to be much closer to her ideology than he/she is to LePage's.

Even if it was a toss up, it would still be far better than the safe R it is/would be with Collins...

Very true, I'm not saying it wouldn't be very good news for Democrats.  Just saying that it would by no means be this easy pickup.

Exactly. If Maine could reelect right-wing LePage over relatively moderate and highly touted Democrat Michaud - it surely can elect more moderate and less polarizing Republican even in open race. After all - all other Republicans elected as governors in 2014 in more or less solid blue states were of rather socially moderate sort - Hogan, Rauner (i will not even speak about Baker, who, essentially, governs as moderate Democrat would...)

[smoltchanov]

Unless she picks her replacement very carefully, RIP that seat for Republicans. Keep in mind that a special election would be held in 2020, a presidential year.

I bet that guy who won the House seat would still be favored.

Yeah, I wouldn't underestimate Poliquin, if he's appointed. Well have to see how he holds up next year, but Maine in 2014 already had the highest turnout of any state. The bump Democrats get from Presidential turnout likely wouldn't be as pronounced here.

May be. But his rather strong social conservatism isn't a plus (but rather a minus) in Maine. Especially - statewide, with 1st district being much more socially liberal.

[smoltchanov]

Unless she picks her replacement very carefully, RIP that seat for Republicans. Keep in mind that a special election would be held in 2020, a presidential year.

I bet that guy who won the House seat would still be favored.

Yeah, I wouldn't underestimate Poliquin, if he's appointed. Well have to see how he holds up next year, but Maine in 2014 already had the highest turnout of any state. The bump Democrats get from Presidential turnout likely wouldn't be as pronounced here.

May be. But his rather strong social conservatism isn't a plus (but rather a minus) in Maine. Especially - statewide, with 1st district being much more socially liberal.

LePage is far more conservative than Poliquin and won very re-election very convincingly. I suspect Poliquin will surprise us and hold on.

Again - may be. But 2016 is unlikely to be next 2014.....