LA: 2014 Senatorial Open Runoff Election Result

[smoltchanov]

Hail, Mary!!! To get more then 44%  in conservative Louisiana after being utterly abandoned and thrown under bus by her own party is really something!

[smoltchanov]

Not the blanche lincoln trashing many had predicted, however the much closer result might cause hubris and cause some democrats to be more delusional into thinking if they just fielded far left progressive candidates nationwide even in the south, that just somehow they'll win.

Not in Louisiana and other "really southern" (so, this mostly exclude  purple Virginia, Florida and even North Carolina) states. Here the "recipe"  (and even it will only seldom work, because the Democratic label is absolutely toxic for vast majority of white majority (even if Democratic candidate is reasonably conservative)) is "run as conservative candidates as possible, but expect only rare victories here and there". Democrats won rural Republican district in Tennessee legislature this year with strongly socially conservative candidate, so - it still happens, though much more rarely then before..

An alternative - support "reasonably conservative" Republican candidates (many of whom are former Democrats, who understood that Republican label is much more beneficial now in the South). A sort of New England in reverse: many relatively conservative candidates run there as Democrats there because of weak position of Republican party in these states.

 

[smoltchanov]

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Yeah, and continued overconfidence going into 2016 and downplaying every defeat they've been handed.  It's interesting. Whenever Democrats win, the prevailing CW is that there's been a "permanent change" to the electorate. Whenever Republicans win, it's almost always attributed to turnout or a bad campaign by the Democrat.  We took a lot of mocking (perhaps some deserved) after 2012, but I do find that a lot of Democrats, particularly editorial pages, have difficulty accepting the fact that they were legitimately defeated.  Have they looked at approve/disapprove of their leader?

They're the ones that are actually marginalizing themselves in the sense that there are fewer and fewer moderates within their party.  Yet, with us, we've got the whole board ful of Susan Collins', Bill Cassidy's, and Ted Cruz's

And where are your Jacob Javitses, Clifford Cases and Charles Mathiases?))). I remember them all, but now - show me at least someone similar in state legislatures. And THESE were SENATORS!

[smoltchanov]

At this point, liberals and moderates in the South would be better able to have their views and agendas represented if they just bit the bullet and joined the Republican Party themselves. Better to be a rump faction of the party in power than the be the party out of power and in the wilderness.

+100. One of the ideas i suggested. Post-Obama Democratic label is absolutely toxic in the South, except heavily minority-majority areas and few university centers. It will take decades to rebuild Democratic party there.

[smoltchanov]

It speaks volumes about the situation Mary Landrieu was in that a three-term senator losing her reelection bid by 12 points was considered "surprisingly close." She was doomed and no amount of DSCC money was going to change that.

Agree. Maximum attainable was something between Iowa's and Colorado's percentages. Something like 53-47. And even that would require a LOT of efforts and money. Too big shift since 2008, especially - in Acadiana (and neighbouring areas), which, since then turned fiercely against Democrats. Landrieu lost about 10% statewide compared to 2008, but more then 20% in many parishes in South-West of the state.

It's interesting to see how southern whites "tolerated" (at least - partially and grudgingly) white liberals Kerry and Gore, but turned with vengeance, when black liberal Obama came to power...

[smoltchanov]

Landrieu lost about 10% statewide compared to 2008, but more then 20% in many parishes in South-West of the state.

The five worst parishes that swung against her were all in the south/west:

Cameron: -62%
Vermilion: -47%
Vernon: -45%
Allen: -44%
Beauregard: -42%

Cameron is very small (less than 2,000 votes cast), but still, she won it in 2002/2008.

If Landrieu matched her 2008 margin (losing by 2) in LA-03, that would have almost cut her statewide margin in half (losing by 7 instead of 12).

Miles, what happened with Acadiana?? Yes, we all know it's very conservative socially, but it refused to go for Goldwater in 1964 and went for Johnson even after Civil Rights Act. And that - at the time when North Louisiana parishes from Caddo to East Carroll went 80-85% (in some cases, like Claiborne - 89%) Goldwater. Acadiana was mainly segregationist, but not so fiercely segregationist in the past... Abortions? "Gay marriage"? Guns? Environment? What???

[smoltchanov]

Miles, what happened with Acadiana?? Yes, we all know it's very conservative socially, but it refused to go for Goldwater in 1964 and went for Johnson even after Civil Rights Act. And that - at the time when North Louisiana parishes from Caddo to East Carroll went 80-85% (in some cases, like Claiborne - 89%) Goldwater. Acadiana was mainly segregationist, but not so fiercely segregationist in the past... Abortions? "Gay marriage"? Guns? Environment? What???

Acadiana always had higher particpation of blacks in politics than the rest of the south. Through the late 1800's, while black partipication in south was in single-digits, it was usually at least 10-15% higher in Acadiana. The political culture of the Catholics was more tolerant of multiraciailism.

In 1964, I know that the political machines played a big part in delivering the region for Goldwater. Claiborne Parish, for example, was an infamous segrationist strongold. If you go just north to AR, you were pretty much back to LBJ landslides.

My own experiences in the region are pretty limited. I have family in Lake Charles, where I've been to a few times. Still, I've had conversations with educated people there who were still skeptical that Obama was born in America! What I've noticed generally, too, in the region, is a rise in evanlegical non-Catholic denomiations. That might be another factor which is pushing Acadiana to behave like the rest of the deep south.

Here's a pretty neat read touching on this. What might most impressive in this whole equation was that the south stayed Democratic as long as it did.

Thanks! Really interesting. Of course - i would like more details (but it would, probably, require a book, and in downloadable format, taking into account where i spend almost all time now), but - thanks nevertheless!