The South is Solid Once More -and This Time, It's Republican

[smoltchanov]

The question is whether or not Blue Dogs are dead for good, or only dead as long as Obama (or a non-Southern Democrat) is in the White House. If we get an unpopular Republican president in the future I could see them making a resurgence.

Agree. Right now for vast majority of Southern whites a very simple identity holds: "Democratic party" = "Obama". And vast majority of southern whites not simply dislikes, but viscerally hates Obama. Hence - the results. In fact - part of the former Democratic "Blue Dog appeal" still exist in the South: Carter and Nunn, for example, essentially got Obama's 2012 numbers in Georgia with substantially more white, older and  conservative electorate. Just not enough.. Though obviously South became much more partisan since 2008 - no more Bright's and Taylor's..

[smoltchanov]

Precisely my point. If both candidates are pro Wall Street you might as well go with the pro-life one or the one endorsed by the NRA.

Do you consider, say, James Eastland, an economical progressive or fiercely populist? Or Sam Erwin? Or Russell Long? Or ... Southern Democrats in the past were not neccessarily populist - many of them were solidly "pro-business". More local one, then Wall Street, but still... Many (well, not so many now, because Democratic state legislative caucus in the South is, mostly, black-based) state legislators were too..

[smoltchanov]

Somewhere along the line being a "Blue Dog" went from being "socially conservative and economically populist" to "conservative on everything". So yeah, if you have two candidates who are conservative on everything, why vote for the one who will vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker?

What if "the one" will not vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker?... Even in recent years some Democrats didn't do it.

[smoltchanov]

I'm not sure what your point is. IceSpear is saying this: given the choice between a conservative Republican who hates Obama and a conservative Democrat who pretends to hate Obama, conservative voters will choose the Republican. Believe me, in certain circles these days, if you say "Democrat," that conjures up a witches' brew of monstrosity. Saying you're "Pro-life" or "I love them guns!" ain't nearly enough.

And i already said why. Because "in that circles" an identity holds: "Democratic party" = "Obama" (identically). As long as this opinion holds (and it WILL hold as long as Obama (extremely weak President IMHO, and black to boot) is a President) - even ultraconservative Democrat will have no chances (there are numerous examples from last election on legislative level, and some (like Barrow, who couldn't convince his voters to vote for him, even being moderate conservative himself) - on Congressional). Relatively conservative white state legislators in the South lose even in a few districts, specifically made for them, like Bedford in Alabama (absolutely "Demosaur" district as it could be). Or simply refuse to run seeing "letters on the wall". And in some states (like Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama or, i fear, an Arkansas now) "these circles" comprise 80-90% of whites - not only well-to-do, but white working class too (may be - even to greater degree then well-to-do)

[smoltchanov]

So we agree!

But not completely. I don't think you understand the stigma "Democrat" carries among these rednecks. Dude, I'm telling you, this is not only an anti-Obama phenomenon. The South is gone. Deal with it. I could gie you some anecdotal evidence, but you wouldn't care and it doesn't matter.

The white South is gone.

Not completely. I have good friends in the South, so i don't need additional evidence. After Obama (and, possibly, Pelosi as party leader in House, who is also a bogus or "devil incarnate" in the South) is gone Democrats will be able to win something in the South - approximately as frequenly as Republicans in New England (may be - somewhat less frequently). But - not sooner.

[smoltchanov]

Why the presumption that black people are not Southerners? They are a substantial part of the population and they vote too. Yes, most statewide officials are Republican today, off the basis of overwhelming white support, but there are still two parties in existence. That was largely not the case in the South for nearly 100 years. Every single office went every single time to a Democrat, usually running unopposed. The South didn't even pretend to follow a democratic process, and many states disenfranchised the Inks out of poor white people as well. The two dynamics are not at all comparable.

Of course - Black people are Southerners too. But - there are not any doubts about their loyalty and where it politically goes. They were and will remain solid Demorats except some really rare cases. The matter in question was (and is) "white South and white southerners" and THEIR political behavoir... With the tendencies of last elections Democratic caucuses in southern state legislatures have chance to become almost "Black only". A sort of "voluntarily political segregation"