Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[smoltchanov]

^ It looks like his numbers are off as he didn't factor in the early vote. Quite significant in some places, considering the early electorate was 8% more Democratic than the election day vote. He has SD6 going for Vitter while I have it for Edwards, for example.

Sadly, the early votes aren't allotted by precinct, so I run the same formula that DRA uses to apportion them - its about as accurate as it can get, IMO.

Agree. And wait for YOUR results and numbers - i always believed them most...

[smoltchanov]

^ So, Armes seat went, probably, JBE. Interesting and gives better hopes for 2019. Though still close, and republican swing is still noticeable. Gisclair's seat seems gone without him, other (Hill's, Danahay's, Montoucet's) - probably too, but there is a chance if Republicans fail at recruiting...

Old Fannin's seat surprised me somewhat - possibly, a conservative Democrat could flip it, but only really conservative (similar to what Fannin himself was as a Democrat)...

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, if you don't factor in the early vote, Vitter would have carried HD30 by 4%.

Also, Edwards got 50.6% in the seat that Ortego lost. I wonder how it would have turned out if that race went to a runoff. Maybe he can win it back in 2019...

May be. He is young and already battle-tested. But - it seems to me that (besides an obligatory in such districts pro-life position) he is a bit liberal (slightly left-of-center according to metrics i saw) for this district...

[smoltchanov]

smoltchanov: ProudNewEnglander and I have chatted - he's revised his numbers and tells me they're almost identical to mine. I'll let him do the heavy lifting for the rest of the House districts. I want to break down the primary by LD, so I'll start on that instead.

Will wait for him and you both...

[smoltchanov]

Which is an illustration of the point that I've been trying to make for quite some time on the Forum that the resurrection of Democrats in the South is dependent on the voting-habits of upper-middle class, suburban Whites rather than racial minorities, the working poor or "Blue Dogs". 

Yes and no. Fully agree on suburban Whites, but "Blue Dogs" still win elections in the South (Milkovich in Louisiana, Dearing in Mississippi, and, essentially, Hill in Louisiana as well (though she was an incumbent)). Of course - in substantially less numbers then 20-30 years ago, when almost all white Democrats from Deep South belonged to that group (and there were very few Republicans), but - nevertheless...

[smoltchanov]

Miles, i have a complaint!))) ProudNewEnglander claims on DKE that he finished his calculations on Governorship by House districts, and gives some examples, but neither map not detailed data are there))))). Can you fill up the gap?)))))

[smoltchanov]

Thanks! It's difficult to judge correctly without numbers, but, generally, Northern Louisiana seems to be more rigid in it's voting then Southern one..

[smoltchanov]

And if i understand correctly - the north is the most "southern" part of the state. Like in Florida....

[smoltchanov]

Have found couple of useful links:

http://geoelections.free.fr/USA/elec_comtes/1948.htm

and:

http://geoelections.free.fr/USA/elec_comtes/1964.htm

Looking at Louisiana: 1948 map   really shows a degree of Perez influence in Plaquemines, and, at the same time, low support for Thurmond in mostly white South-West, and (why?) in some South-Central parishes not far from Baton Rouge.

1964 map is even more interesting, IMHO:very high (in some cases - extremely high) level of Goldwater support in North and Central Louisiana (+ Plaquemines), somewhat lower - in South-East, and strong loyalty to Johnson in Acadiana. Despite almost all these areas (North, Central, South-East, Acadiana) being represented by Democrats in Congress and legislature. So - it must be very different breeds of Democrats...

[smoltchanov]

^ 1948 was interesting. St. Martin is the most Francophone parish in the state, IIRC, and it (and the counties around it were strongly for Thurmond). Not sure.

Another infamous segregationist parish boss was William Rainach of Claiborne Parish. Thats why those parishes just east of the Shreveport area were all a few shades darker green than those around it.

I read extensively about Rainach, IMHO - "the Dynamo" of Louisiana segregationist politics (even more so, then Perez though the latter is better known), his governor campaign in 1959, and suicide in 1978. Contrary even to Thurmond (and Joe Waggonner, another "hero" of segregationists in 1950th - 1960th) - he (again - IMHO) couldn't reconsile himself with post-segregation life.....

[smoltchanov]

That voter registration. Did a majority of independents still vote for Vitter, or are there still plenty of DINOs who voted for Vitter?

Looks like Edwards got just around 38% of the white vote with that racial makeup.

38% is something most Democratric candidates in the South can only dream of. If all of them would get such white support - vast majority if statewide offices in South would be held by Democrats..

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles! And i can easily understand good Vitter showing in SE part of the state, but why NW? More "ideologically right" Republicans there, for which Vitter was the only "true conservative", and thus - only feasible candidate?

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles! Well, an explanation is more complex then my simple hypothesis, but, at least, i was partially correct..

[smoltchanov]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

We already know who won in which district. If you mean ideological makeup - 1 year from now (or, may be, 1/2 year - after next legislative session)

[smoltchanov]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

We already know who won in which district. If you mean ideological makeup - 1 year from now (or, may be, 1/2 year - after next legislative session)

I meant partisan make-up. 

Senate: 25-14 Republican, House: 61-42-2 Republican. Both Indies also caucus with them..

[smoltchanov]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

We already know who won in which district. If you mean ideological makeup - 1 year from now (or, may be, 1/2 year - after next legislative session)

I meant partisan make-up.  

Senate: 25-14 Republican, House: 61-42-2 Republican. Both Indies also caucus with them..

That may be your personal count, but has it been made official yet?   

Well, both Indies caucused with Republicans last time, both are conservatively inclined, and it's better to be in majority. So, i see no reasons for them to switch their allegiance. And, frankly, don't care too much whether they will do it..