Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[smoltchanov]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

Someone is very confident in his analysis...

Absolutely. And i don't need any troll comments..

No troll comments here. Chill bro. You seem a bit prickly...must be a Russian thing...

I think he got banned from Swing State Project for his excessive arguing over moderates.

Exactly. And from Red Racing Horses - too. Despite them personally offering me to join and perfectly knowing which type of candidates i prefer (in suitable districts, of course). Both Democrats and Republicans are absolutely intolerant about opinions, which may differ from their own, on their sites, despite bragging otherwise....

P.S. I even mention that in my signature...)))

[smoltchanov]

Very effective robocalls- the second one is particularly powerful.

In addition, Louisiana's biggest newspaper, the New Orleans Times Picayune, has endorsed Vitter.

http://www.nola.com/elections/index.ssf/2015/11/david_vitter_endorsement.html

I hope i will be able to remind you some of your words late Saturday....)))

[smoltchanov]

So, in legislative elections there are only 4 races between Democrat and Republican. My forecast:

SD-12 - Mizell (R) (almost won in 2011)
SD-38 - Burford (R) (though Milkovich may have some  remote chances, being very social conservative and relatively well-known after 2 previous campaigns for House)

HD-32 - Hill (D) (by very narrow margin, because 3rd place Democrat seems to be a Republican plant, and because of  sheriff's election in Beauregard parish, which must drive turnout there...)
HD-103 - Garofalo (R) (though will root for Hunnicut (D), but district has Republican lean, Garofalo is an incumbent and has about 16% advantage after 1st round)

One more interesting duel is "a battle of 2 Carters" in JBE's HD-72, but much more experienced (and seems to be - substantially more popular) former state representative from this district "Robby" Carter (43% in first round, politically - centrist) must prevail over substantially more conservative, younger and less experienced Hunter Carter (20%)

[smoltchanov]

Not every person thinks like people on this site think - people vote for a lot of reasons beyond the person with the right policies.

Okay, Atlas Democrats, would you vote for a Democrat with Vitter's character issues over a Generic Republican?

Honestly? Yes, and I'm not even a Democrat. It sounds wrong, but I care more about policies, since they actually have an impact on the lives of millions of people.

If Vitter loses, it will most likely because of this scandal. But I would prefer if they rejected him because of his policies.

And i - NO. Even if i would agree with his policies. A scumbag with right policies remains a scumbag not worthy of my vote...))))

[smoltchanov]

This thread is getting very cluttered up very quickly. Can we please save the "would you vote for candidate X if ..." talk for a Individual Politics thread?  

Yes, Miles, i will do it. But it seems to me - we will not get a lot of news before real voting begins.. Last RRH poll seems very strange to me, Caldwell percentage especially...

[smoltchanov]

Not a fan of the positioning, but once again, I appreciate that Edwards fights back.

You have to give and take when you're a Democrat running in an R+10 state.  And it goes both ways.  You don't see Baker or Hogan opposing Obama on everything, but surely they are preferable for R's over Coakley and Brown.  Same principle here.  You don't win opposition +10 areas running on your national agenda.

+100. Always had a sort of algorithm (and principle at the same time): "Democrats must run the most liberal candidate able to win (district or state), but in some distiricts and states that can mean not only moderate, but outright conservative candidates (who still almost always will be less conservative then Republican ones), Republicans - vice versa (including moderate or outright liberals in some districts and states)"

So JBE is absolutely fine to me in Louisiana. And even more conservative Democrat (like Kathleen Blanco) would be fine to me there too. Absolutely different - in Vermont or Hawaii))))

[smoltchanov]

I still stick with my 51-52 - 48-49 prediction. But will be happy to err and "underestimate Edwards".....

[smoltchanov]

If Vitter loses and runs for reelection, LA Republicans would be stupid not to primary him. With Mitch Landrieu as a potential Dem candidate, the two of them in a runoff would be very competitive.

Primarying someone in a top 2 state can be a dangerous thing indeed.  Might be a good idea for Dems to recruit Cedric or Mitch plus a rural Dem legislator.  If Vitter, Angelle and Dardenne all run again, they could end up with a D vs. D runoff.

I think ideally, you'd want it to be 2 white Democrats, if only because 60-65% of LA's presidential year primary electorate is going to be African-American. You'd very likely end up with Richmond and a R winning the top two seats. We of course don't want to pretend that a black man can win a statewide federal contest in LA...

No, obviously he can't...

[smoltchanov]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Vitter creams Edwards by 5 to 8 points.

So what's the "Texas Democrat" part of your username?  It can't possibly mean you identify as a socially conservative Southern Democrat because you'd probably, you know, be supporting the socially conservative Democrat in the race...

My friend, I am no longer a Democrat, having quit the party 2 years ago. Even if I did identify as one, there's no way I'd back an Obama-coddling liar like John Edwards, who is 100% pro-choice. David Vitter has a proven record of fighting tax-and-spend Washington establishment dinosaurs and getting real, tangible results. Anyone with even only half a brain would back him over the awful iguana!

Absolute and outright lie. Prolife Louisiana (which surely knows better) gave Edwards 100% rating year after year. So, you are a liar. End of story..

[smoltchanov]

This is an interesting positive ad run on behalf of Edwards. It never mentions his party, and you'd think he'd be a Republican just from watching it.

Reminds me of an ad that Mike McIntyre ran in 2012.

Those are my kinds of Democrats!

For me - depends. In the Deep Sourth white majority districts - my too. McIntyre district was, probably, most Deep South-like in North Carolina, so - too. Or, say, in UT-4: no liberal could win there, but Matheson - could. Naturally that means that my favorite Republican candidates in most of the North-East are very moderate (unlike, say, TX-13)....

[smoltchanov]

Another amazing high-energy ad out from Mickey Murphy, this one features white Jindal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NbLhy2mHHg

Murphy will, probably, lose. St. Tammany Parish is too Republican. Even Ben Nevers (a very socially conservative Democrat and fixture in local politics for 2 decades at least) lost it 2:1 in 2011. He won only by getting good margins in Tangipahoa and Washington parishes. Not sure Murphy can repeat that...

[smoltchanov]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region over the past 1.5 decades. 

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

May be. Most cajuns are ancestrally Democratic, but - very conservative on social isuues. And they reacted very negatively on Obama's presidency...

[smoltchanov]

Where is that "Vitter for Governor" poster when "good god-fearing people of Louisiana" finally (and strongly) kicked that slime David Vitter ass?))))) I wanted to say him: "swallow it, and if you can't - choke on it!"

Almost 56% for Edwards is quite the achievement. Expected about 56% for Nungesser, but not for Landry (most of the "other" vote were for Democrats and it seemed - they would prefer Caldwell). The biggest surprize in Legislature is, probably, Milkovich (D, but very socially conservative) victory in SD-38 - 2 previous campains for US House probably made him wery well known in the district...

[smoltchanov]

^ Yeah, Miles, and i am 100% for Edwards. But what will he do in 2019 against "normal" conservative Republican without Vitter's problems? I think - such race will be very difficult for him..

[smoltchanov]

Democrats ended the GOP supermajority in the Senate actually.

Dem Pickups: 24, 38

Rep Pickups: 12

That leaves the Senate balance at 14D and 25R.

Isn't Milkovich a very conservative socially?

[smoltchanov]

^ Let's not get ahead of ourselves

Sure. It's only a hypothesis after all)))

[smoltchanov]

Democrats ended the GOP supermajority in the Senate actually.

Dem Pickups: 24, 38

Rep Pickups: 12

That leaves the Senate balance at 14D and 25R.

Isn't Milkovich a very conservative socially?

"Milkovich, who grew up working on cattle ranches, said he stands in firm support of the Second Amendment, the free expression of faith and the eradication of Common Core standards in Louisiana schools. Milkovich said the heart of his campaign stemmed from values that unite the community — faith, family and hard work.​​

"It's time to get back to old school," Milkovich said in an earlier interview with The Times. "We should defund Planned Parenthood. We should support religious liberties of teachers, of coaches and principals. Familes have to live on a budget, so should the government. It's time to reduce the size of the government and cut taxes on working families and small businesses." ​

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/story/news/2015/11/21/senate-race-district-38/76104502/

Thanks! So, he is a rarity these days - a really conservative Democrat (with few populist notes). There were a lot of them in the South not long ago, but now they are almost extinct..

[smoltchanov]

As far as turnout, I haven't seen anything published on the SOS site yet, but a good source purports that Edwards got 37% of whites with a 30% black electorate.

That would imply (with loose math here) that he literally got 100% (possibly even slightly more) of the black vote.

I'll admit that I'm a little disappointed if that's the case. I had been assuming that JBE only got 90% of the black vote and that blacks were 28% of the electorate (FTR, I did assume that was under-projected), which made me think JBE won about 43% of the white vote.


Also, just poured over the gov results I uploaded to Atlas and realized that JBE won a majority of the land/water area in LA, scoring victories in parishes that comprise 61,236 km2. This was pretty close in percentage terms (54.3%) to his percentage of the vote (56.1%). This would seem nearly unthinkable in the modern-day South.

37% of white vote is now an outstanding percent for Democratic candidate in Deep South (even Hood got less, if i am correct). For comparison - how much white vote did Obama get in Louisiana and Mississippi?)))

[smoltchanov]

Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes; one of the few bright areas for Vitter.

Miles, historically both these parishes were very conservative, but - strongly Democratic. What happened in the last quarter century?

[smoltchanov]

^

In the Senate Democrats picked up SD24 and SD38 but lost SD12

In the House, it should be 61 R/ 42 D/ 2 I. Democrats lost HD39 and HD41.

Exactly. I would only add that 2 I will caucus with Republicans. Democrats survived this year with minimal losses, even better then in Mississippi. But, as i said earlier - there may be serious problems next time: about half of Legislature will be term-limited, and among white Democrats only 4 will have a right to run for reelection. Some open (next time) seats (HD-32, HD-33 and HD-54 first of all) are about R+30 or more. It's rather difficult to imagine them to stay Democratic (even if Democrats will run very "local" and conservative candidates). Of course - it's way too early, but i am reasonably sure the problem will exist...

[smoltchanov]

^

In the Senate Democrats picked up SD24 and SD38 but lost SD12

In the House, it should be 61 R/ 42 D/ 2 I. Democrats lost HD39 and HD41.

Exactly. I would only add that 2 I will caucus with Republicans. Democrats survived this year with minimal losses, even better then in Mississippi. But, as i said earlier - there may be serious problems next time: about half of Legislature will be term-limited, and among white Democrats only 4 will have a right to run for reelection. Some open (next time) seats (HD-32, HD-33 and HD-54 first of all) are about R+30 or more. It's rather difficult to imagine them to stay Democratic (even if Democrats will run very "local" and conservative candidates). Of course - it's way too early, but i am reasonably sure the problem will exist...

Awesome.  Thanks to both of you.


If I recall correctly, in Louisiana, the governor selects the Speaker of the House.  With a 3 to 2 deficit for Democrats, that could be interesting.

Most likely - a "coalition candidate". If whole Democratic caucus will be joined by about dozen anti-Vitter and anti-Jindal Republicans - quite possible...

[smoltchanov]

Excellent, Miles! So, SD-35 may pretend to be the most conservative state Senate District in Louisiana? Not surprising that even such (formerly) conservative Democrat as Fannin had difficulties there. And with "D" letter after name he would surely lose...

Some further observations:

1. Almost all Edwards/Republican districts (all, except SD-27) are not far from either New Orlean or Baton Rouge, many of them - suburban.

2. Democrats must have good chances in SD-08, when Alario retires in 2019.  SD-17 and SD-27 - another matter. Both  Ward and Johns are formerly conservative Democrats, now - relatively "moderate" Republicans, both fit their districts, and may run for reelection. I would presume - under normal situation they will get reelected.

3. Democrats have only 3 relatively "difficult" seats in state Senate, with the most problematic in 2019, probably, being SD-28, because it will be open. Smith and, especially, Milkovich, have theoretically even more difficult districts, but both fits them well, and both may run for reelection...

4. Wish that Democratic candidate in SD-12 (formerly - Nevers district) would be able to copy JBE percentages there...

[smoltchanov]

^ Even more thanks! And yes, coastal Louisiana, especially Lafourche and Terreborne parishes swung heavily Republican of recently, while many districts (especially suburban, i wouldn't imagine SD-06 going Democratic...) went other way. Quite recently SD-20, SD-21 and SD-26 elected a lot of Democrats, ranging from very conservative (Foster, Siracusa, Hoyt) via "pragmatic conservatives" (Chabert family, Dupre, "Butch" Gautreaux, Nick Gautreaux) to moderates (Robichaux). Even in special election in SD-26 in 2011 Democrat (conservative of course, but still - ..) almost won (Republican Perry essentially won only after it was discovered (and trumpeted  all over district) that one of Democratic candidate assistant's once worked for Obama - absolute no-no in districts like this..). No more. Probably - "pragmatic Republican conservative" like last Chabert is the best one can hope to in these districts (except on very local level, where i still expect some very conservative Democrats winning because of tradition)...

[smoltchanov]

Excellent, Miles! So, SD-35 may pretend to be the most conservative state Senate District in Louisiana? Not surprising that even such (formerly) conservative Democrat as Fannin had difficulties there. And with "D" letter after name he would surely lose...

I probably would have voted for Cathey in SD35, even though he was likely more conservative. Fannin allegedly resorted to some really underhanded tactics, and rightfully got a fair amount of blowback.

I understand that... But i simply tried to imagine Fannin (who, AFAIK, was the most conservative Democrat in Legislature before switching) running there as a Democrat. He would surely lose...

[smoltchanov]

Miles (and other interested) - there is big discussion on DKE about JBE results by House districts. One can find it here:


http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/1/1452573/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-12-1#comments

The nick of a person, who claimed to do the math, is ProudNewEnglander, and there is a very interesting discusssion beteen him and (mostly) ArkDem14 there. Some results (author doesn't gives a link to his calculations):

Dem/Vitter:

Michael Danahay (District 33)

Dorothy Sue Hill (32)

James Armes (30)

Jack Montoucet (42)

Jerry Gisclair (54)

Best district for Vitter held by a Dem: District 54 (Lafourche)

-------------------------------------------

Rep/Edwards:

John Guinn (37)

Kenny Havard (62)

Stephen Frank Carter (68)

Erich Ponti (69)

Franklin Foil (70)

Clay Schexnayder (81)

Chris Broadwater (86)

Tom Wilmott (92)

Bryan Adams (85)

Ray Garofalo (103)

Chris Leopold (105)

Most Romney-favoring districts of the above: 37 & 86 (both voted 73% for Romney)

Above districts that voted >60% for Edwards: 62, 70, 105

I generally expected such pattern with Vitter winning in South-Western and/or Acadiana districts (especially - coastal or heavily white), while losing a lot of suburbs. And it confirms my hypothesis that a Democrats will have a very difficult time there in 2019, when a popular (and, frequently, relatively conservative) present white state legislators will be term-limited. Danahay, Hill and Gisclair districts were prime examples of that for me, but it seems there are more..