Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[smoltchanov]

RRH has a good preview of the elections tomorrow...I haven't really had time to put together anything substantive about the downballot races, so I'll defer to them!

Statewide races.
Legislative races.

Thanks, Miles! Not as detailed as in 2011 (to be honest), but still good...

[smoltchanov]

I think the Dems have recovered from 2010 & 2014 mistakes about running away from their president. Thats why 2015 isnt turning out to be a normal offyear election. As it turns out 2018 may be a neutral year after all too.

No. Edwards makes everything possible to distance himself from  Obama on almost all social issues, and presents himself as "normal southern pro-life church-going  (but caring) Democrat".  Only on less ideological issues like education (and some economical problems) their views are similar. And, as far as i know, both Edwards and Conway in Kentucky are, generally, pro-gun. None of them runs as "Obama's clone" - it's a suicide in Southern statewide race.

[smoltchanov]

Some impressions and statistics:

Governor - Good result for Edwards and best possible for Democrats. Now Edwards really can (but not MUST) win...

Lt. Governor. Nungesser will win run-off easily

Attorney Genaral. Leans Caldwell. As conservative as he is Democrats will, probably, support him in run-off with Landry

Other statewide - as expected.

Education (BESE): LABI prevails. 6 elected are supported by it, and in 2 run-off at least 1 probable winner - too. FlipBESE - lost.

State Senate - most likely status-quo. Democrats flipped back SD-24 (Boudreaux), while Republicans will, most likely win SD-12 runoff (Mizell (R) - Murphy (D)) in old Ben Nevers seat. Overall there are 4 state Senate run-offs, but in SD-07 it's pure Democratic (Carter (black) - Arnold (white)), in SD-36 - pure Republican (Burns - Gatti) and in SD-38 Republican Burford is, probably, favored over Democrat Milkovich. Establishment Republicans beat back most attacks from far right (Appel, Erdey, Claitor, Chabert), though in last 2 races they got barely over 50%. In majority-black SD-29 white Democrat Luneau rather convincigly beat very conservative black Republican Dara.

State House. Republicans easily flipped HD-41 and (narrowly beating Ortego) HD-39. Their only other chance is in HD-32, but Hill(D) (but conservative-leaning) leads Smith(R) 49-37 there.  The only Democratic chance to flip Republican seat is in HD-103, but Republican Garofalo (39%) leads Democrat Hunnicutt (recent party switcher) (22%) there. Most other run-offs are intra-party (especially in majority-black or heavily Republican districts). In HD-72 we will see Carter's duel in run-off, with "centrist" Democrat Robby Carter (43%) favored over conservative Democrat Hunter Carter (20%). Among incumbents, who lost their races: Lorusso (R, HD-94), Woodruff (D, HD-87). Some incumbents  (Ourso (R, HD-66), Whitney (R, HD-53), Harrison (R, HD-51), Franklin (D, HD-34)) are forced into intraparty run-offs....

[smoltchanov]

Some additional observations:

1. Democratic caucus gradully becomes more and more black, both because some white Democrats lose to Republicans (Ortego), are term-limited  and replacement happens to be Republican (Guillory, HD-41) or because white incumbents run for something and are replaced by black Democrats (Arnold, HD-102). So far process is relatively slow and in the next legislature there willl be between 15 and 18 (most likely, IMHO, 17) white Democrats in House, and, most likely, 4 in Senate. But after 2019 white Democrats risk near extinction: 13 of them in House and 2 in Senate are term-limited, and many of these districts are either strongly Republican on high level (especially - Presidential) (like SD-28, HD-33, HD-54 and other, mostly - in Acadiana and around it)  or, on the contrary, are majority-black (SD-34, HD-21, HD-83, and their like). There is a high probability that Louisiana's white Democrats will share the fate of their Alabama's brethern (in Alabama there is only 1 white Democratic state Senator and about 6 House members now) after 2019. Polarization begins to take an extreme form here...

2. Edwards has essentially 2 problems that can prevent his election: Obama and low turnout (especially in run-off)... Vitter - exactly 1: himself.

3. One of the biggest possible pluses for Democrats in 2019: No Obama on ballot or in the White House. He will be rather distant memory then...

[smoltchanov]

First, I believe a Democrat won Guillory's seat.  

Different Guillory (HD-41, not SD-24)

[smoltchanov]

^ So, her main strength is in Allen Parish? But what surprised me even more - Republicans couldn't find a candidate against not so conservative Gisclair in about R+33 district.. As i already wrote - i expect a real bloodbath for Democrats in conservative districts in 2019, when  "old-timers" (those, first elected in 2007) will retire "en masse"...

[smoltchanov]

I don't know if anybody noticed, but apparently disgraced ex-rep Vance McAllister tried to make a comeback against incumbent senator Walsworth and epically failed.

Of course. But - not surprised, 38% after big scandal in VERY conservative district against extremely conservative (may be even THE most conservative in state Senate) incumbent (even McAllister was slightly more moderate) is bad, but not SO bad, IMHO...

[smoltchanov]

Thanks Miles, excellent maps!

[smoltchanov]

Which CD would be the second one Edwards would carry in the run-off, after CD-02?

Surely - neither  CD-01 nor CD-03. Either of remaining 3 theoretically can: in 04 there is Shreveport and other Democratic-friendly areas, 05 - contains Edwards legislative district, where he greatly outperforms, 06 - a lot of urban areas and "moderate" Dardenne voters...

[smoltchanov]

 ^IMHO, CD-03 was mostly Angelle territory in primary. And, generally, Acadiana swung heavily R since first Obama election in 2008. That's why i put it relatively low in probable Democratic percentage. But, surely, Vitter will do the best in CD-01

[smoltchanov]

^ Interesting. Vitter, obviously, isn't an "Acadiana candidate". Neither is, probably, Edwards. Obama's cratering in Acadiana still makes me cautious...

[smoltchanov]

This is definitely good news for Edwards, but I'm still getting serious Kansas 2014 vibes from this race. Many moderate Republicans in Kansas supported Paul Davis, but it still wasn't enough.

If Vitter holds Edwards under 50% in the final polling average, he's got a shot. However, I don't see that happening.

The last (admittedly - Republican) poll of this race is 49 - 41 Edwards. I am sure both Edwards and Vitter will hit 45% mark, so it's gonna to be close...

P.S. Essentially Vitter's chance is in running campaign against Obama, not Edwards. If (God forbid) i would be Vitter's campaign manager - i would flood mass-media with ads about dangers of electing "John Bel Obama", about Edwards be a "puppet of Obama's adminisration" (and not a church-going good Westpointer with rather strong socially conservative (but - populist) views he is), and so on. Even with somewhat racist (of course - not as direct as David Duke's in 1991) overtones. That's his only chance, but - not so small chance....

[smoltchanov]

^ If it works (and it works in vast majority of southern races) - why change it??? IMHO - it will work until Obama leaves office...

[smoltchanov]

Blacks made up 30% of early voters yesterday, the first day to vote early.

It was 26% in the first round early vote.

Good. Edwards really MAY win. Only MAY, as it's a Louisiana - almost "scorched earth" statewide for Democrats (at least - as long as Obama is president). But, so far, all stars aligned favorably for him....

[smoltchanov]

Can we have more John Bel Edwards running across the country instead of the boring Democrats that attack opponents in such a low energy way? Edwards is brutal and that's how the Democratic Party should be.

That's probably true about any candidate of any party (including Republicans), doesn't it? The only problem with such approach is that in such case politics smoothly evolves into war... The real one...

[smoltchanov]

I don't think you can compare this to Kentucky directly. It's just that Kentucky taught me (as someone who generally thinks Democrats are better than Republicans) to set my expectations low.

To be realistic, Kentucky is probably lost for two generations now, but Democrats do have reason for medium-long run optimism about Louisiana and Mississippi.  They were among only 6 states to actually swing toward Obama in 2012, and three of the others can definitely (NJ,NY) or probably (MD) be explained by Hurricane Sandy.  Landrieu also held up much better than expected in the runoff last year.

Medium-long? Not sure. As long as voting in Louisiana and Misssissippi is so polarized by race whites will outvote Blacks and other minorities and elect extremely conservative Republicans almost exclusively. Long-term (30 years and more) - yes. Demographic changes are relatively slow...

[smoltchanov]

Can we have more John Bel Edwards running across the country instead of the boring Democrats that attack opponents in such a low energy way? Edwards is brutal and that's how the Democratic Party should be.

I think brighter days are ahead for Democrats in the south post-Obama, but keep your expectations low regardless.

+1. Obama was a catalyzer of Southern whites's discontent with Democratic party and absolute symbol of everything that vast majority of them viscerally hate. Without him (and another liberal urban elitist Black Democrat as President) the situation may improve for Democrats there. But only "somewhat". For genuine improvement state parties must become more independent and more different from national one (say, in Vermont, state party may be even more liberal then national, but in Deep South to have even chances for BIG wins state parties must be substantially more conservative then national one, look, for example on position of most Louisiana's Democrats (including JBE) on abortions and "gay marriage"). As it was, say 50 years ago, when Mississipi Democratic party was very different from New York Democratic party. Now they are almost identical in their platform. No, of course i don't say that Mississippi's Democrats must call for return of "white rule", as some of them did 50 years ago, but, obviously, general Mississippi's (or Louisiana's) mentality (and positions of vast majority of voters) is substantially different and much more conservative then New York's and California's...

P.S. The same is, obviosly, true, for Republicans. Vermont Republican party MUST be much more liberal then Oklahoma's if it wants to win elections "en masse"...

P.S. 2 It's impossible to impose your "desired behavoir" on people besides pure judicial norms. You may call them whatever you want ("redneck bubba's", for example), but you can't force them to vote the way you desire. So, you must go a very long and tedious way of adapting to their mores first, and, may be, gradually influence and slowly change them with time. Again, the Deep South 50 (may be - 60) years ago is a good example: probably, no less then 80% (may be even 90%) of whites there supported some sort of segregation then. But, when it became clear, that following such policy to the limits will lead to closed schools and universities and National Guard on city streets - situation began to change: support for rabid segragationists began (slowly) wane, and adaptation to new realities (often - grudging) slowly began. Though it had political consequences in many white's implicitly deciding "but i can do one thing - leave party, that imposed all that on me, and go to different one"....

[smoltchanov]

Sabato: Lean R -> Tossup.

Finally. About where it stands now, IMHO.. Much better personal qualities of JBE and split in Republican party against general state inclinations and ..... Obama.

[smoltchanov]

GOD DAMN John Bel won't let David Vitter get away with his snide Republican bullsh**t. MAKE THIS MAN PRESIDENT!

A person who is rated 100% by Prolife Louisiana? I doubt he will be able to win primary in California))))))

[smoltchanov]

GOD DAMN John Bel won't let David Vitter get away with his snide Republican bullsh**t. MAKE THIS MAN PRESIDENT!

A person who is rated 100% by Prolife Louisiana? I doubt he will be able to win primary in California))))))

If he wins, he would be a truly interesting VP pick for 2020/24.  But I can't fathom a pro-life top of the ticket for D's in this era.

Me too. Ideological positions of both parties hardened a lot recently...

[smoltchanov]

GOD DAMN John Bel won't let David Vitter get away with his snide Republican bullsh**t. MAKE THIS MAN PRESIDENT!

A person who is rated 100% by Prolife Louisiana? I doubt he will be able to win primary in California))))))

He could moderate to similar positions on abortion as Joe Biden in the future without looking like a complete flip-flopper.

Only AFTER he stops being Governor of Louisiana and ONLY if he decides that his career in the state (probably - the most pro-life state in US) is over. Delaware is much more socially liberal, it's much easier to do such thing there...

[smoltchanov]

^ smoltchanov, just enjoy the fact that Edwards took Vitter to the woodshed in the debate.

Absolutely. As i said - there are few politicians i really hate more then Vitter.

[smoltchanov]

In one of the more awkward endorsement ads I've seen, Duck Dynasty's Willie Robertson endorses Vitter.

That's a big endorsement for Vitter.

¿Pór qué?

Possibly - because no one else (except LABI) wanted to endorse him...

[smoltchanov]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

[smoltchanov]

Forgive my ignorance I haven't paid much attention to the gubernatorial race, but how does Edwards views line up with the national Dem party? Is he close to being a conservadem or is he quite liberal or in between?

IMHO, typical southern populist. Rather liberal (cautiously) on economy, but much more conservative on social issues (including being 100% pro-life as very many Louisiana Democrats are). Good mix for his state, as no "flaming progressive" will win in the next 30 years statewide there...

Someone is very confident in his analysis...

Absolutely. And i don't need any troll comments..