MA Special Election Watch Thread

[smoltchanov]

http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/05/keith-ablow-announces-interest-in-massachusetts-senate-seat-asks-for-gop-support/

Fox News Psychiatrist Keith Ablow says he will run should nobody else do so. There is a scary possibility that that might occur.

It seems to me - he needs psychiatric assistance himself...

[smoltchanov]

lol, the Republicans might not even have a nominee

http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/02/republicans-fear-blizzard-could-leave-them-without-mass-senate-candidate-08

Does it really matter?

Yes, Winslow is a serious candidate. I can even envision a scenario (2 in fact) where he wins. Both are not especially likely, but - nevertheless

[smoltchanov]

Disagree very strongly. Democratic turnout will be much lower then in November, Markey is rusty and not accustomed to serious races for 30 years, and Winslow is smarter in some aspects then Brown (if Republican party in Massachusetts has a future star now, it's, possibly, Winslow). Obviously in Massachusets even dead stump (if Democratic) is initially favored, but only initially

[smoltchanov]

It's not 2010 anymore and there is nothing that Republicans can latch onto like healthcare and Democrats having 60 seats. I also doubt that Markey will go on vacation during the campaign. Brown was definitely their best candidate, I can't see Winslow being an even better one for them.

Better. He is more liberal (or libertarian) socially. And he is at least as good campaigner as Brown. And i am of very low opinion of Markey as a campaigner - for last 30 years he did't have to sweat to win, and he is 67, so, he, most likely, forgot what tough campaign is. Even Lynch (as campaigner, not as a candidate) would be better.

In addition Markey candidacy means one additional thing: Democratic leadership doesn't expect to win House at least until 2022. No one would give so much seniority in the House for seat of backbench (and, most likely, not the most productive) Senator otherwise

[smoltchanov]

I agree. Winslow is a good candidate at bad time.

[smoltchanov]

I say Winslow gets 40%, maybe even a little bit more, and then he goes on and tries to run for Governor.

I hope for 43-45. And agree on later

[smoltchanov]

4 candidates Republican primary in Massachusetts Senate race. When did that happened last time? And how many votes will be enough for victory?

[smoltchanov]

Even better. Someone at RMG argued for "bloody primary". They may get it. Well, Democratic primary will be rather boring (between 2 "old horses"), so may be Republican will compensate at least in this aspect..

Does anyone knows anything about Bennett and Sullivan political positions? I am aware about other 3, but not about them.

[smoltchanov]

With signature submitting deadline (Feb 27th) is less then a week away -  fewer candidates remain in Republican primary. Bielat is out, Bennett - possibly too. IMHO - that leaves Gomez (who seems to be the choice of party generally conservative "insurgents" as a "fresh face" with unusual biography (Colombian former Navy SEAL and former Obama and Khazei supporter who, then, went bitterly against Obama)), Sullivan (who seems to be a choice of "establishment conservatives" and some "rebels", who can't live with Gomez past support of liberal Democrats) ad Winslow (generally - a choice of moderates and many libertarians). At least - it seems so from  Internet info. My question is to those, who live in Massachusetts now - how correct is this my assessment and what really happens "in place"?))))

[smoltchanov]

With signature submitting deadline (Feb 27th) is less then a week away -  fewer candidates remain in Republican primary. Bielat is out, Bennett - possibly too. IMHO - that leaves Gomez (who seems to be the choice of party generally conservative "insurgents" as a "fresh face" with unusual biography (Colombian former Navy SEAL and former Obama and Khazei supporter who, then, went bitterly against Obama)), Sullivan (who seems to be a choice of "establishment conservatives" and some "rebels", who can't live with Gomez past support of liberal Democrats) ad Winslow (generally - a choice of moderates and many libertarians). At least - it seems so from  Internet info. My question is to those, who live in Massachusetts now - how correct is this my assessment and what really happens "in place"?))))

Gomez is not the candidate of the grassroots, but rather the Romney establishment that fed for six years on the hope of federal patronage. People like Kaufman and Healey care far less about winning elections since they themselves cannot be elected than they do about ensuring that they are the power-brokers Rubio and Christie come to in 2015, and therefore control Massachusetts patronage in a new Republican Administration. Gomez is less about winning than about ensuring that Baker is the nominee in 2014 if Brown dosen't run.

Winslow backed the insurgent candidate for MA GOP chair and has been on the outs with Romneyworld since 2004-2005. The greatest threat for them is him winning 45-46%, then using that as a base for running for Governor. Brown might feel the election was in safe hands(which he wouldn't with Baker) and Winslow has shown a willingness to purge Romney operatives that would lock them out. A Winslow governorship would be the end of Ron Kaufman and Kerry Healey's influence in politics.

Sullivan is the candidate of the Andy Card, Massachusetts Bush people and is largely irrelevant to local feuds which may or may not be an asset.

Thanks a lot! Well, with Bush and his like as popular in Massachusetts as dead wood, i would consider Sullivan the least electable candidate, while Winslow - the most. Though i understand that Democratic candidate is heavily favored in any case - it's unlikely that Democrats made no lessons from disastrous Coakley campaign of 2010

P.S. I am aware that Winslow supported an insurgent candidate for MA GOP chair, but, probably, must explain why i considered Gomez a candidate of grassroots: rather strong support for him in RMG poll. Most of the RMG authors and contributors tend to reflect grassroot's views, at least - to some extent.

[smoltchanov]

Winslow is probably eminently electable for Governor or any other non-federal office, and comes closest of the current crop of Republican Senatorial hopefuls, but Markey will probably defeat him with relative ease, if comparatively anemic numbers. Massachusetts Democrats are terrified of the prospect of a 2010 repeat.

Fully agree. As i said earlier - i see the only hope for Republicans in the fact that Markey may completely forgot how to campaign after 30+ years of easy reelections in his safe district. And (to small extent) - in possible extremely low turnout in June, especially - in big cities.

[smoltchanov]

All 3 Republican candidates -- Sullivan, Winslow, and Gomez -- will be on the primary ballot. Supposedly, Gomez paid $8-14 per signature to grind his way to the 10,000 hurdle.

Will Republicans opt for "electability" (Winslow), "ideological purity" (Sullivan, who has -100% chances to win, but ideally reflects republican "base" with his ultraconservative (especially - for THIS state) positions) or "resume and political correctness" (Gomez)?

[smoltchanov]

I would be shocked if Winslow loses. He seems to have the most name recognition and was the first one to be really active about running. I don't see how he loses, unless the Republican electorate in Massachusetts decides to screw this up. I'm not saying Winslow will win, no way, but Winslow is certainly their best shot, and he seems like my kind of Republican.

My - too, and fully agree. But few people come for special primaries, and of those, who come - most are of  activist-purist type (my most hated type in BOTH parties). They may decide differently and "proudly go down" with  Sullivan, whose views were barely acceptable (politically) for Massachusetts even 20 years ago, and absolutely unaccteptable for present-day statewide race. If he would run for State representative - another matter: there are still some conservative state legislative districts even in this state. But statewide -

[smoltchanov]

Gut feel says it's Gomez as he has the most establishment support.

Possibly, but not very likely. Good resume, but very politicaly checkered (and mostly Democratic) past as i understand..

[smoltchanov]

I always expected a Democratic nominee to be Markey, but still have severe doubts about his ability (and desire) to campaign

[smoltchanov]

Markey leads the Republicans by about 20 points:

http://bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2013/03/06/UML%20MA%20RV%20March%202013%20-%20TOPLINES%20-%20FINAL.pdf

Lynch has decent leads as well.

That has some gems, like at least 15% of the population thinking special elections are both good ideas and wastes of money. Also, Dan Winslow has comically low name recognition, noticeably worse even than the other two Republican candidates. Why would that be?

A sizable share of the Mass. electorate knows *someone* named Michael Sullivan...

Plausible. But what about Gomez? He polls slightly better the one of the republican's leaders in the state house - why?