Miles' Election Map Thread

[smoltchanov]

What sort of politics does your uncle have?

I'd consider him a pretty generic R. He ran on 'family values' both times.

Ah. Here I was thinking he was Tea Party lol.

LOL, quite the opposite.

He's been accused of being a RINO in the past!

It's Louisiana after all)) You can't be "too conservative" there)) But easily - "too liberal")))

[smoltchanov]

Both of these seem to have been races where the too-conservative guy lost... the cajun primary is back and no Democrat filed, so they were R-R races on a GE turnout. And in that situation you can still be quite easily too conservative.

It was a sort of irony. There are no really moderate Republican officeholders in Louisiana i am aware of. Even moderate conservative... So, frequently, it's a fight between very and extremely conservative candidates. In SUCH situation very conservative candidate (Boustany, for example) can win over extremely conservative (Landry) of course, but that doesn't make him less conservative)))

[smoltchanov]

Both of these seem to have been races where the too-conservative guy lost... the cajun primary is back and no Democrat filed, so they were R-R races on a GE turnout. And in that situation you can still be quite easily too conservative.

It was a sort of irony. There are no really moderate Republican officeholders in Louisiana i am aware of. Even moderate conservative... So, frequently, it's a fight between very and extremely conservative candidates. In SUCH situation very conservative candidate (Boustany, for example) can win over extremely conservative (Landry) of course, but that doesn't make him less conservative)))

It makes him less conservative than the other guy. -_-

True...

[smoltchanov]

This is why I'm a centrist.

'Forget ideological purity, its usually a choice between the lesser of two evils now..Boustany vs. Landry would be a good example.

Me too (though i am more conservative fiscally and more liberal socially then you). And exactly by the same reasons)))

[smoltchanov]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

I wonder too. Personally - expect hodgepodge. Some counties (especially - after 2010) have, probably, gone Republican irreversibly, but there is no such almost universal "Appalachian hatred" of her, as is in Obama's case. Personally, i don't remember such heavy minority support and such rejection (almost visible hatred) on part of rural and southern whites, as in his case, during last 40 years i monitor US elections. It seems to me even Mondale vote in 1984 was "more balanced"

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, I agree.

Hillary got over 80% in the primary in most of these counties. She'd be in a pretty strong position if those Democrats stuck with her in the general over the Republican.

What surprised me here was that relatively few people were willing to split there ticket for Kaine. Obama lost those counties 71/28; Kaine did only slightly better, as Allen won them 68/32.

Nationalized Election? Phenomenon, which is quite frequent now. Is there ANY county in Virginia with relatively high difference (say, more then 7-8%) between Obama and Kaine?

[smoltchanov]

Are you sure that it's NC-12?

[smoltchanov]

As props to Blanco for calling out Jindal this past week, I've decided to do the 2003 Governor map next.

I've broken down how the CDs would have voted:



Whats funny in this map is that (other than CD2) districts 4 and 6 were the most Democratic at the federal level; Blanco's performance in both 4 and 6 was actually worse than her state margin.

If i remember correctly - Blanco ran that year as a rather "old school" Cajun Democrat (and rather conservative one), while Jindal - as a sort of "urban conservative reformer". In addition - Democratic ad, showing Jindal even mre dark-skinned that he really is, worked fairly well in rural Louisiana - Blanco won many conservative rural parishes, which Democrats seldom win.

[smoltchanov]

It seems to me that substantial number of black-majority precincts along the river still somehow managed to vote Romney . How is it possible? Or am i wrong?

[smoltchanov]

If i remember correctly - Blanco ran that year as a rather "old school" Cajun Democrat (and rather conservative one), while Jindal - as a sort of "urban conservative reformer". In addition - Democratic ad, showing Jindal even mre dark-skinned that he really is, worked fairly well in rural Louisiana - Blanco won many conservative rural parishes, which Democrats seldom win.

Exactly. One of Jindal's slogans (which he repeated alot later when Obama was running in 2008), was that in Louisiana, the Republicans are the party of change. Jindal even got Ray Nagin's endorsement.

Out of Obama's 5 worst parishes in 2012 (Cameron, LaSalle, Livingston, Grant and West Carroll) Blanco carried all of them except Livingston pretty comfortably.

Again, if i am correct - there is a big difference between Livingston and other four. Livingston is a suburban and rather upscale parish, full of rather well-to-do managerial types, who doesn't have a "nobless oblige" symptoms  (and sympathy to less successful people then they are) of their coastal counterparts (being, frequently, well-to-do only in first generation), while other four are relatively sparsely populated rural parishes. It's difficult to imagine to me - which sort of Democrat can win any of these parishes (only - extremely conservative (BTW - if you know such people - inform me, you know - i like the mavericks)), with Obama getting between 11% and 19% there. Of course - compared to local candidates Obama underperformed severely in these parishes, but still - ....

[smoltchanov]

If i remember correctly - Blanco ran that year as a rather "old school" Cajun Democrat (and rather conservative one), while Jindal - as a sort of "urban conservative reformer". In addition - Democratic ad, showing Jindal even mre dark-skinned that he really is, worked fairly well in rural Louisiana - Blanco won many conservative rural parishes, which Democrats seldom win.

Exactly. One of Jindal's slogans (which he repeated alot later when Obama was running in 2008), was that in Louisiana, the Republicans are the party of change. Jindal even got Ray Nagin's endorsement.

Out of Obama's 5 worst parishes in 2012 (Cameron, LaSalle, Livingston, Grant and West Carroll) Blanco carried all of them except Livingston pretty comfortably.

Again, if i am correct - there is a big difference between Livingston and other four. Livingston is a suburban and rather upscale parish, full of rather well-to-do managerial types, who doesn't have a "nobless oblige" symptoms  (and sympathy to less successful people then they are) of their coastal counterparts (being, frequently, well-to-do only in first generation)

Suburban - exurban, with a population almost doubled over the past twenty years. But not exactly upscale. Richer than the places we're comparing it with here, richer than the state as a whole, but a lot poorer than Saint Tammany. And incredibly White by Southern standards and fairly uniform - unusually small difference between mean and median income (mean income is not that far above the state average actually), with the highest income brackets (200k+ households) underrepresented compared to the state as a whole.

Thanks for correction! Neverthelless - such areas usually vote rather in uniform way: in this case heavily Republican.. Probably - less so because of race then rural parishes, but more so - because of general economic and social positions..

[smoltchanov]

Speaking about geography - Shreveport area seems to be more conservative at that time then now, while Acadiana - vice versa (yes, i know that Breaux was a congressman from that area, but the same is true for many other races)...

[smoltchanov]

Well, as i got accustomed, that doesn't means much in the South. A tangible percentage of registered Democrats there almost always votes Republican (while almost no one - vice versa), and most of the Southern Indies are conservative too....

[smoltchanov]

Miles, in such races, where almost all candidates belong to one party (Democrats in this case) some clarifications (black/white, liberal/centrist/conservative, and so on), are, IMHO, necessary. Not everyone knows all candidates and their positions...

[smoltchanov]

Pennington (chief of police/black) and Singleton (city councilman/black) completely escaped my mind))) Other are relatively well-known. Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

And Bill Strain seems to be a rural conservative Democrat from NW part of the district. Am i correct? If so - he is, probably, a person Vitter owes his victory over Duke here, and all career that followed...