Russian electoral type event: 2011 (Duma)

[smoltchanov]

Well, as a person not only of Russian origin, but also residing in Moscow and having right to vote in russian elections i will try to add something new, though i agree with many things already said..

1. "United Russia" will win, and win big. There may be doubts whether it will have a "constitutional majority" (2/3) in Duma, but even if not - there will be enough "switches" from other parties (Communists, "Liberal Democrats" (this party is neither liberal, nor democratic), or, may be, "Just Russia", if it will get over 7%) to give it this majority. The main reason - is a "quality" (in fact - lack of quality) of opposition:  communists in Russia are (contrary to their Western counterparts) mostly of "unreconstructed" type , still dreaming about "great socialist/communist superstate", "Liberal Democrats" are very authocratic party of V. Zhirinovski, and, generally, a pet project of "Gorbachev's reconstructed KGB" of late 80th - early 90th (as far as it's leader is concerned - you may take Huey Long, add Edwin Edwards and David Duke according to your preferences, and you will get good "approximation" of him..), "Just Russia" is another Kremlin's project, which is similar to european socialists with some "green " tinge, and other - well, "Yabloko" ("Apple" in English) is, essentially, social-democratic party, popular during late years of Gorbachev's "Perestroika" (again - late 80th - early 90th), but - much less now and unlikely to get more then 2-3% of vote, "Right Cause" -  another Kremlin's project - an attempt to create a "manageable" (a key word here), party with seemingly european "democratic" slogans and ideas, which made a laughinstock of itself during recent internal power squabble, and will not get more then 2% as well, and "Patrions of Russia" is a splinter group from communists, which is composed of people, who turned to be more "ultrapatriotic" then communist, and is also unable to get more then 2% nationwide


2. All other parties and groups in Russia are not officially registered by Justice Department and thus have no rights to participate in this elections. An option (which became very popular in late 90th - early 2000th) "Against all", which became to serve as a possibility for voter to express it's dissatisfaction with "powers that be" and with so called "opposition"as well, was also conveniently (for authorities) eliminated, and does not exist anymore (it became to get more votes then any political party and candidate, so - no surprises here)

3. All central (and most local) mass media is controlled either by Kremlin or local authorities (usually "United Russia" members and/or leaders), so there is no "equal chances" for other parties to get their message heard. At the same time mr. Putin or mr. Medvedev may speak freely on national TV even 12 hours every day if he likes.. The same generally true about other high-ranking officials of "United Russia"

4. The level of election falsification is not high in relatively more "politically advanced" big cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg (and it's there, where "United Russia" may suffer at least some losses), but very high in remote provinces and rural areas. So, it's not a problem for "United Russia" operatives "to get some required votes"

5. As seen from everything described above - russian politics is extremely skewed (even compared to Europe, even more so - with US) left. The parties like "Right Cause" would, ideologically, correspond to something like moderately liberal Democrats in US, but in Russia it's an "extreme right"...  I, myself, consider my views "slightly left of center" by American standards, but by russian standards i am an "extreme rightist"))) There is almost no "civilized right" in Russia.... At all...

[smoltchanov]

I wouldn't say so. There are still many publicly owned industries, but they aren't very supported. The income tax is only 13%. Considering that russia is in it's own little dreamed up world politically makes it hard to point it down where it is. I think social issues would be a little easier, and it still doesn't give a clear picture, abortion is legal and unchallenged, but gays are hated by most of the population. No death penalty, but a prison system that imprisons almost as many people per capita as the US. Trying to describe Russian politics in Western terms will eventually lead you to contradicting yourself eventually.

The characterization in "russian terms" would be even less clear for western reader))) So i try to use their terminology...

The abortion is not as "legal and unchallenged" as it seems - according to the latest law there must be at least 2 days (in some cases - 7 days) waiting period before abotion really performed (except some critical medical situations). Gays are hated everywhere, to the lesser degree - in capitals. No death penalty- yes, but you will not survive more then few years in most "special prisons" in Russia. 13% "flat" tax - yes, but not for long, despite it's being obviously beneficial to oligarchs and "powers that be".... An authocratic hybrid of "state capitalism" (similar to China, though, naturally, with some differences) with, still, some "socialist" features..... (all is, of course, IMHO))))

[smoltchanov]

To what extent is the KPRF actually an opposition party?

Not especially. It's leaders "eat" from the same "feedlot" as almost all other: they are (as parliament deputies) entitled to a lot of government-sustained benefits and privileges, so - you can imagine....)))

[smoltchanov]

The characterization in "russian terms" would be even less clear for western reader))) So i try to use their terminology...

There isn't such a thing as a "western reader". Nobody lives in the "West" - people live in US, UK, France, etc., etc.  The left-right spectrum is different in every country. On many issues what is considered "mainstream" in Russia would make hardcore KKK members in the US blush. On other issues, all Russians are (by the US standards) Communists.

Of course. But i can't write 10 messages on one subject - one for Americans (in "American political language"), 1 - for British, 1 - for Germans, and so on. For most Russians differencs between, say, US people and those of Great Britain are minimal, compared to similarities (which are generally combined into something called "West" or "Western political system")... Few people go into details))) The same - vice versa))))

[smoltchanov]

Well, as a person not only of Russian origin, but also residing in Moscow

Oh. Say hello to Moscow for me. It's been a while... I hear the Ismailovo has been torn down since.

I will. Yes, if you mean a "flea market")))

[smoltchanov]

Alright, folks, it's time for a shock videos.
Video 1.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rv2uOdNXt8w
Matvei Civinuk, one of the pupils (Grammar School N3, Krasnoyarsk) noted some of UR posters in a school (violation of law - Russian election law prohibits ANY propaganda in schools) wrote something on them. Prinicipial tries to reprimand him.
Video 2.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4KstbfxBLI&feature=youtu.be
1st graders (school unknown) Teachers says:
"These are gifts from United Russia. It's a party. When you will grow up, you will also register as United Russia member".
And you still talk about Democracy and free elections in Russia, folks?

Which Democracy??? Which "free elections" May be 10-20 years from now. We are approximately on equal level with South Korea of 1980th (with evolving economy under harsh military regime). If i remember correctly - South Korean military leaders finally went on trial and got harsh sentences after country finally became democratic. My only hope is we will have the same in Russia finally)))

[smoltchanov]

I voted for Apple ("Yabloko" in Russian). The results will begin to tricle after 21-00 Moscow time. If i am correct - that's 17.00 GMT. Though votes  are undobtlely already counted on Far east, after all it's about 1:30am December 5th in Chukotka right now))))

[smoltchanov]

Plausible numbers given astronomical percentages which ER (or UR, if you wish) will get in some national republic of North Caucasus. The only thing that "surprises" me there (in Chechnya for example) is that voting turnout is NOT 110% of voters and ER percentage is NOT 105% of vote))))

[smoltchanov]

Probably - about 50%. With all the faking. Without - yes, 30--35, or even less. But it wasn't a "victory for the left" either - just a very strong "protest vote".. A lot of people voted "anyone, but UR"....

[smoltchanov]

As a side question, how unreformed are the Commies? Do they have much of a platform or is it only their name which attracts support?

I had the impression its supporters are mainly elderly pensioners who long for the Good Old Days.

The leadership and many old-age supporters - absolutely. I remember present head of Moscow commies since days when we were both a students at Moscow University. Some business supporters and more young officials - usually slightly less orthodox. But, nevertheless, even they speak about "socialism" and "old days of glory" with admiration)))

[smoltchanov]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkL6kepBuME&feature=related
these invisible pens
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG1ey3QvC7Y&feature=player_embedded
Ballot stuffing for ER

What is happening in the second video?

Ballt stuffing. Prefilled (for "United Russia") bulletins are intentionaly added to legal one's during vote count to increase "UR" percentage... Very common practice in some areas of Russia on part of the "ruling party".

[smoltchanov]

The Ideologies of each of the parties are i believe.

United Russia-Conservative
Communist party-Marxist-Stalinist far far left
A Just Russia-Democratic socialist
Liberal democratic-radical right

Surprisingly the Liberal democratic party is a far right party and is under fascist parties in russia. Found this on wikipidea but i cant send links.

Almost totally wrong)))

UR doesn't have an ideology at all. Their only "ideology" - "we must stay in power. Indefinitely"

Commies and Just Russia - about right, but both parties are still influenced (and rather strongly) by Kremlin, though JR tries to become "somewhat more independent" as of late.

LD is a party of one man - Vladimir Zhirinovski. It doesn't has a sort of ideology, but a potpourri of right-wing and left-wing slogans with rather efffective messenger (him). A typical KGB-creature - mixture of far -right, far-left and nationalism is a typical set of beliefs for KGB-employee)))

[smoltchanov]

UR doesn't have an ideology at all. Their only "ideology" - "we must stay in power. Indefinitely"

That, in a sense, is the primary underlying definition of "conservative".

If so - yes. But only in that sense. I don't see any paralles between UR and, say, British Conservative party or US Repubican party..