US House Redistricting: Connecticut

[smoltchanov]

Quite natural behavior on Republican's part. They have 0-5 plan now, and they are basically offered to prolonge the same plan for next 10 years. Naturally - they refuse. What can they lose? Nothing, it can't get worse then 0-5. So they "gamble" hoping that Court plan (especially if Court is "activist" enough and will try to create "minority-heavy" district) will give them at least 1 winnable district. All is very natural. Democrats would do the same if situation would be reversed.

[smoltchanov]

Well, it, probably, depends on who that master will be. But (as was said many times) - Republicans can't get anything worse then they have, so - they can gamble freely.

[smoltchanov]

Most likely - again 5-0. Even if Republicans nominate their best candidate (Roraback) for such district - Democratic candidate will be favored. Especially in Presidential year and McMahon as likely republican Senate candidate. Roraback could win in 2010, but, as in MA-06 it will be more difficult in 2012