Mister Mets
YaBB God
Posts: 4,440
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« on: June 01, 2022, 03:18:12 AM » |
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This would be a relatively normal development.
Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W Bush all won reelection by bigger margins than their initial election. Biden's win was narrow, so there's room for improvement.
There are many potential explanations. 1. Events- An economic recovery in 2024 is possible and would be great for Biden. 2. Candidate Trump screws up- Former President Trump could easily run a terrible campaign, or there could be some other major error (IE- a bad Vice Presidential pick from someone who had to be talked out of Christie and Gingrich.) 3. Trump sabotages the Republican nominee- If Trump doesn't seek the nomination again, or if he loses a primary, and feels insulted by the Republican nominee, he's certainly capable of saying and doing stuff that will hurt the party. 4. Major third party campaign- If there's a divisive Republican primary, a MAGA independent ticket or establishment independent ticket could split votes, and help Biden's margin. 5. Demographics after all- The country is getting less white, but it hasn't helped Democrats as much as expected. But maybe 2024 is when it all happens. A variation of this would be if a reliance on evangelical voters (which may be more about how conservative Christians identify themselves than the way this was understood pre-Trump) scares away centrists, or boosts left-wing turnout. 6. Democrats learn discipline- Given the extremes of the parties, any party that goes with the center with strong message discipline may be able to win in a landslide. I don't think Democrats will be able to thread the needle of keeping the base happy while focusing on popular issues, but it's possible. 7. Major Republican scandal- "Grab them by the pussy" didn't end the Trump campaign, but it's always possible for something big to happen. Maybe a 78 year old Trump is caught on video saying something stupid, or Ron DeSantis proves not to be teflon if he has a Rielle Hunter or Bridgegate style problem in October 2024.
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