Which state, as a percentage, would have the most walker'16, obama '12 voters?

[Mister Mets]

I'd expect a good percentage in Illinois.

Democrats won't have the favorite son advantage, and it's a place where a midwesterner can play well.

But Hawaii's the likeliest. Walker could lose by 25, and it'll mean about 17% of voters flipped from Obama to him. It was a small state proud of its presidential nominee, and those can swing wildly (see Arkansas.)

[Mister Mets]

Hawaii

At most the Democratic nominee will go down a point or two. Hawaii is a lot more liberal than it was in 2004 or before that.

Obama won Hawaii 70.55% to 27.84%. It seems possible that Democrats will go down there by more two points, although this is unlikely to make a difference.