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Mister Mets
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« on: January 12, 2015, 08:22:10 PM »

I had to delve a bit into history to find an earlier example of someone who lost his party's nomination for President, won it only to lose the general election and won both, and found Martin Van Buren, although for him it happened in reverse order. On yet another occasion he would be nominated by a third party.
Many potential presidential nominees would follow an unprecedented path to the White House. Hillary Clinton was first lady. Jeb Bush is the brother and son of Presidents.

Also-rans have often lost in their next go-arounds, although part of it is that the political environment was often against them. No one Democrats would have nominated could have beat Ike in '56.

Romney's had some relatively lucky breaks. The establishment primary is unsettled, and history seems to have vindicated some of his comments (that Russia is a geopolitical enemy, Northern Mali is vulnerable to rebels, and Detroit should go bankrupt.)

I guess the precedent he prefers is Ronald Reagan, a former Governor elected President on his third go-around in his late 60s.

He probably doesn't want to be Tom Dewey (Northeastern Governor who was the losing nominee twice) or Al Smith (Northeastern Governor with controversial religion nominated on his second go-around, who loses the primary in his third.)
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2015, 05:00:51 PM »

I think people are too dismissive of his chances. Sure, retreads haven't had the greatest success, but relative to what? Very few identifiable categories of candidates have had a high strike rate - it's really quite hard to become President. He's not the greatest candidate in the world, but who exactly is a clearly superior GOP candidate?

Kasich, Walker, Pence, probably Jeb, maybe Paul.
Definitely not Pence.

Pence underperformed Romney by ten points in Indiana, showing that there's a significant chunk of the voters who would support Romney but not Pence.
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Mister Mets
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Posts: 4,440
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2015, 05:07:07 PM »

I think people are too dismissive of his chances. Sure, retreads haven't had the greatest success, but relative to what? Very few identifiable categories of candidates have had a high strike rate - it's really quite hard to become President. He's not the greatest candidate in the world, but who exactly is a clearly superior GOP candidate?

Kasich, Walker, Pence, probably Jeb, maybe Paul.
Definitely not Pence.

Pence underperformed Romney by ten points in Indiana, showing that there's a significant chunk of the voters who would support Romney but not Pence.
If Pence underperformed Romney by 10 points, we would have lost. I think you mean Romney's 10 point margin and Pence's 5 point margin.
Romney's 10.2 and Pence's 3.2.

I will amend my comment.

Pence underperformed Romney by seven points in Indiana.
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