I'd expect Romney to do better than in '12. Hillary's not as effective a campiagner as Obama. It's easier to run in an open election, especially when the other party held the White House for two terms. And he has practice.
Obviously there are numerous ways it could turn out. My guess is that a slight majority of the time Romney flips at least Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Ohio and Florida were the closest in '12, and Pennsylvania's been getting closer to the national average. It's also a state Romney didn't invest in much during the last election, but it ended up being almost identical to Colorado with percentage of the vote.
Romney/ Martinez- 273 Electoral Votes
Clinton/ Bennet- 265 Electoral Votes
I chose two running mates who make sense. I don't think it matters that much.
If Romney comes short of that, which would remain a strong enough possibility, Hillary would be the first female Prez.
