Are O'Malley and Warner done (for President/VP)?

[Mister Mets]

O'Malley's best bet is to hope Mikulski doesn't want another term in the Senate. He doesn't have much chance for national office if he's this unpopular in a very liberal state.

Warner should be fine. A narrow reelection didn't keep Pawlenty from making McCain and Romney's shortlists. But making him Veep might cost Democrats a Senate seat, especially with Gilespie as a potential Republican nominee.

It's also worth noting the limited alternatives. Losses in '14 mean that Paul Davis, Charlie Crist and Anthony Brown won't be considered. Hickenlooper's relection was similarily narrow. Kaine's numbers aren't better than Warner's.

Julian Castro and Michael Bennet seem like the big veepstakes winners.

[Mister Mets]

If O'Malley is a Democratic nominee, not in 2016, but maybe 2024, can he even win his home state?

He's probably going to have to get elected to the Senate, in order to be taken credibly in the future. Otherwise, it'll be too long since he held office. And the last moment for his political career would be the defeat of his chosen successor in a very liberal state.