But even if Taylor manages to get his vote share down to say, 5-6% or so, that's votes that Orman can't get. Roberts can breathe a little easier with Taylor's name on the ballot than he can without it being there.
If Taylor's name stays on the ballot, it will capture some votes. But I don't think it will be 5-6%.
My guess is approx half of that (2-3%).
I'm looking forward to seeing the very first poll with just Orman and Roberts.
Major parties tend to get votes even if the real election is between the other party and an independent.
In the 2006 Connecticut election, Lieberman got 49.71% as an Independent, Ned Lamont got 39.73% as the Democratic party's nominee and the Republican got 9.62%.
In Colorado's last gubernatorial election, the Democrat got 51%, and former Republican congressman Tom Tancredo got 36.43% as the Constitution Party's candidate. The Republican candidate, a businessman who paid a five figure fine for campaign finance violations and was accused of lying about working for the CIA, still got 11%.
Those situations are a bit different in that the irrelevant candidate remained in the race. It's a bit different with the Democrat telling people to support someone else, but 7% support wouldn't surprise me.
