Politico: The Case for Mitt `16

[Mister Mets]

One reason it's tough to make a rule like "No losing nominee has a chance at being his party's next candidate" is that there is a relatively small sample set.

Looking at losers of presidential elections; Papa Bush, Ford and Carter were incumbent Presidents who lost.

Dole and McCain were in their early 70s when nominated.

Mondale, Mcgovern and Dukakis suffered more embarrassing losses.

That leaves Humphrey, Kerry and Gore. Gore didn't want to run. Kerry realized that the party was more interested in nominating a first (be it first woman or first African-American) than a war hero who lost to Bush. Humphrey relatively close in 1972, losing to a candidate who ran a savvy campaign and had stronger appeal to the base.

Romney has a few lucky breaks. The field is fractured. One establishment frontrunner is under investigation. Another is George W Bush's little brother. He would have the advantage of name recognition, in addition to dedicated support in the business community and among Mormons. Plus, he would have an existing campaign infrastructure.

I don't think he'll run, but he would be a strong contender for the nomination. The reasons that Gerald Ford, Walter Mondale and Bob Dole didn't run for president again don't apply to him.

[Mister Mets]

In all seriousness, "Mitt '16" sounds a lot like "Kerry '08". I seem to recall the media taking the latter very seriously as well, and consistently claiming that Kerry was "doing what he needs to do" in order to run again in 2008.

Republicans hate Obama as much as Democrats hated Bush eight years ago, and there will be a section of the party that blames Romney for Obama's reelection, although Republicans do seem to have more respect for Obama's political talent than Democrats had for Bush.

Kerry's biggest problem was the 2008 primary field. He would have been the third choice, at best, in a field that included a young African American Senator and a female Senator with 100% name recognition and a popular husband. It ended up being a long hard-fought primary, although that was between figures Democrats generally liked with similar policy positions.

The 2016 Republican primary is likely to be more divided, which leaves more openings.