Which states could flip with no Hillary?

[Mister Mets]

Florida and Ohio were slightly more conservative than the rest of the nation in 2008 and 2012, so those are the likeliest pick-ups.

Virginia's also likely to be within a point of the national popular vote.

Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and Pennsylvania were bunched very close together in 2012. PA, in particular, has been getting less Democratic-leaning since 2004. If a Republican wins the popular vote by two points, these states probably go to the party.

The Romney/ Ryan ticket had unique strengths in Nevada and Wisconsin, but those states might flip if Republicans do a little bit better. Looking at recent elections, a four point popular vote win should help the party carry Minnesota.

The gap with Michigan and New Mexico was slightly higher. That would require a six point Republican win, or a combination of a slightly smaller win, and a popular favorite son/ daughter candidate/ running mate.

If Christie recovers enough to become the party's nominee, New Jersey's likely to be in play.

This could all happen with Hillary as the nominee. She currently has the benefit of being able to distance herself from unpopular policies. That's not a luxury she'll have as the party's candidate.