Battle of the Runners Up: John McCain vs. Bill Bradley, 2000

[Mister Mets]

McCain would have been stronger than Bush. Bradley would have been weaker than Gore.

I'll give McCain every state Bush lost by six.

McCain/ Engler- 356 Electoral Votes
Bradley/ Gephardt- 182 Electoral Votes

[Mister Mets]

McCain would have been stronger than Bush. Bradley would have been weaker than Gore.

I'll give McCain every state Bush lost by six.

Bradley wouldn't have been a weak candidate.  He'd served three terms in the Senate and he wouldn't lose support to Nader like Gore did. Given how Nader managed to snag around 5-6% in some states, like Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon due to dissatisfaction with Gore, I doubt Bradley would do so bad as to lose every state Bush lost to Gore by six.  

I will agree McCain would've been stronger than Bush and probably would've won the general given he was seen as more moderate back then, but it would've been close.  

Something like this probably.  

McCain: 289
Bradley: 249

My guess is that the things that would make Bradley more appealing to the 2.74% country that went for Nader, would also have likely sent more centrists Dems into the arms of a Republican war hero considered more moderate than Bush.

[Mister Mets]

My guess is that the things that would make Bradley more appealing to the 2.74% country that went for McCain, would also have likely sent more centrists Dems into the arms of a Republican war hero considered more moderate than Bush.

A fair bit of that 2.74% is clustered in some of those close states.  For instance, I doubt McCain would win Maine where Gore beat Bush by six AND Nader carried over 5% of the vote on top of that. 

I also doubt Bradley would've lost many centrist Dems to McCain.  While he ran to the left of Gore on some issues, he wasn't far left.  Remember, he co-sponsored the Tax Reform Act of 1986, one of Reagan's tax cuts. 

McCain would've undoubtedly picked up more independents and undecideds and won the election, but I do think Bradley would do respectable as well. 

Good point on Maine.

I wasn't saying McCain would get a lot of centrist Dems, just more than enough to make up for Nader voters who'd go for Bradley, keeping in mind that Nader's total support was pretty small compared to Gore's numbers.

[Mister Mets]

So, McCain was really popular back then?  What changed to make him less popular?

It was probably timing more than anything else.

In 2008, the President of his party was rather unpopular.

Random thought. Who would their running mates have been?

With New Englanders like Joe Lieberman, Howard Dean and John Kerry off the table, I'd imagine Bradley's choice would come down to Dick Gephardt or John Edwards.

Hagel and Thompson were McCain backers, so they might have been on his short lists. He might have tried to woo Maine Governor Angus King to send a message on independence.