I don't know why people seem to think Arkansas would vote for Hillary before Indiana and Missouri. If she's winning Arkansas, she'll have both of those states in the bag, especially Missouri.
She doesn't have special ties to Missouri, so I don't see any reasons to expect her to significantly outperform Obama there, even in a good year for a party. She'd have to outperform an incumbent Democratic President by more than nine points. There's no precedent for that.
She does have special ties to Arkansas, so a 24 point flip is conceivable. Hawaii went from a single digit Kerry win in 2004 to a 45 point Obama win in 2008. Arkansas went from a 15 point Bush win in 1988 to a 17 point Clinton win in 1992.
I don't think polls taken prior to a campaign are that valuable, but she does pretty well in Arkansas polls, suggesting a willingness of voters to support her under the right circumstances, which is what Maximum EV would measure.
