Cuomo VS Jeb

[Mister Mets]

Let's say the 2016 presidential election is between two individuals currently acknowledged to be top-tier candidates: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (son of former New York Governor Mario Cuomo) and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (the son and brother of two Presidents.)

Instead of giving the ticket, I'll list the shortlist out of curiosity about how the veep could change the results.

Cuomo's Vice-Presidential shortlist is Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, newly elected Pennsylvania Governor Allyson Schwartz, California Congressman Xavier Becerra and Transportation Secretary (former Charlotte, NC Mayor) Anthony Foxx.

Bush's Vice-Presidential shortlist is former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, New Mexico Governor Susanna Martinez, New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.

How do you see this election going?

[Mister Mets]

I see Cuomo as a generic Democratic candidate. Bush due to his last name is a weaker Republican candidate. So what would likely be an election that usually favors Republicans becomes a tossup.

Fortunately for Democrats, the electoral math favors them in a tossup. A uniform four percent swing gives Republicans Ohio, Florida and Virginia. But that's only 266 electoral votes.

They would have to swing the Democratic leaning tossups (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire) where Cuomo would be well-positioned.

So, my guess for the default map (Democrats would do this well or better slightly more than half the time.)

Cuomo....48.9% of the popular vote. 272 electoral votes.
Jeb...48.9% of the popular vote. 266 electoral votes.

Leaning Republican...
North Carolina, Florida

Republican leaning Toss-Ups...
Virginia, Ohio

Democratic leaning Toss-Ups...
Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire

Leaning Democratic...
Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico

Veeps could change things a bit...
Schwartz would help Cuomo with the base, and can shore up Pennsylvania, a slight insurance policy should Jeb do better than expected. But there may not be enough geographic diversity in a ticket consisting of two neighboring Northeastern states.

McCaskill and Klobuchar have Washington experience, political chops and would also represent a significant milestone if elected to the White House. They would also represent effective surrogates in the West and Midwest.

Foxx could help keep African American turnout high, and would probably be worth a few points in North Carolina, a state that has become increasingly favorable to Democrats.

Becerra is qualified, charistmatic and would represent a different kind of milestone. Although it's easy to stereotype Democrats from New York and California.

As for Bush, Jindal is smart, young and qualified. But he may be too socially conservative for some. Martinez helps in Western states, and represents a few milestones, as well as a new face for the Republican party. Cruz shores up the base, and serves as a strong right-wing surrogate, although a Texas Republican is easy to stereotype. Ayotte could help in a small swing state, while bringing legislative and prosecutorial experience. And it would be useful to nominate a woman, especially if Cuomo picks Foxx or Becerra. Walker could highlight the shortcomings of Democratic policies and be a good surrogate in the Midwest.

[Mister Mets]

Cuomo with a clear majority of the PV and over 300 EV.

Bush can't win unless the Democratic candidate is terrible. I can think of no more effective way to turn out the Democratic base than to run Bush, and his policies are similar enough to W that for independents, the election essentially becomes a referendum on W's administration.

What's with the lackluster list of Dem VP candidates? I'd pick Schwartz out of the bunch, but we have  much better candidates on the bench.

I've made a calculation that Cuomo would want to avoid anyone else in the Northeast (which excludes Booker, Warren, Patrick, and Gilibrand). I also assume he wouldn't want another white guy (which excludes Schweitzer, Warner, O'Malley, Hickenlooper and Sherrod Brown.)

How many others are left? I figured that Klobuchar and McCaskill were more likely selections than Napolitano. I've also heard more chatter about them than, say, Kay Hagan.

And I don't see the Democratic nominee selecting Tammy Baldwin as a running mate.

[Mister Mets]

Anyways, if Jeb Bush had a different name, he'd be up there with Christie as a candidate.

He's only a candidate because of his name.

What? He's the most popular living former Florida Governor and is still seen within the state as the Republican party's intellectual leader. Elsewhere his reputation may be based on his name, but in his home state he's got a lot of goodwill left over, especially among state Republicans. Being popular and experienced in the largest swing state would put anyone on the map as a top candidate.

He's only a former governor of Florida because of his name.

My point is that you can't say "oh, if Jeb wasn't a Bush then he'd be a great candidate" when his entire career was possible based off of him being a president's son. So is his future fundraising capabilities.

Much of the same is true of Cuomo, who was the son of a New York Governor when he got his first political job.

When Jeb first ran for Governor in 1994, he was a respected businessman, even if he was helped at every step along the way by his famous father's connections.