Australian Election 2004 Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tasmania current-all 5 ALP

Indications- 3 ALP, 2 Liberal.

But, take heart leftists worldwide; Eden Monaro is showing a near 4% swing to the ALP, and it has gone with the winnner for the last 32 years.

Last election there was an Anti-Howard swing in Tasmania 'cos of the whole boat people thing (only state where it produced a negative swing for Howard).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al-whereas now its an anti-Latham swing on logging

Yep... 7pt swing in Braddon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Currently a 4% swing to the Liberals.

Now down to 3%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ABC says a 3.8% swing to the Liberals, -0.8  from Labour, -3.7 from the Democrats. Are the Democrats conservatives? If so, could be some tactical voting here.

Current prediction:

Liberal 57
National 13
Labor 40
Greens 1
Others 3

Two-Party swing has been dropping for a bit now... down to 2.7%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AEC has:

Lib 55, ALP 41, Nat 12, Ind 3, Not Sure 39

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ALP have gained in Coal Mining areas

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not really. The main coal seat of Australia, Gippsland, ahs ha a 5% swing to the Nationals.

Gippsland is lignite/"brown coal" IIRC.
Check out the results from the coal seats in NSW

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol, justification

look, I know Gippsland. I I know the Latrobe Valley. It's a coal seat. And it's swung to the coalition.

Thing is, Gippsland has never been a strong ALP area (unlike the coal seats in NSW), it's had a National M.P for... what... 70 years?
It's interesting that Lignite fields don't corralate with voting patterns a great deal, but bitumenus/subbitumenus/anthracite tends to.
But that's a different issue.

The pro-ALP swing in the NSW coal seats is pretty much the only positive from this election so far... and I'm damned if I'm not getting at least *one* positive out of this debacle... oh and I think the ALP picked up a seat in suburban Sydney...

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Howard probably sees this as a personal triumph. He will now probably wait for the Grim Reaper... which comes sooner out of the death one or the electoral one...
I reckon he'll sack Costello fairly soon...

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Very true. The Australian electorate can be disturbingly good at reinforcing stereotypes of Australia...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Schroeder is on course for a loss in 2006, giving Germany it's first female Chancellor).

Don't be so sure... while the SPD is very unpopular due to the economic reforms, the electorate is slowly realising that the CDU is keener on them than the SPD...
May the least hated party win!