Democrats Seem to be Targeting 6 States

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If AR, TN, MO and LA and "very strongly Republican" then I'm a donkey.

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If Toomey upsets Specter the PAGOP will have blown their brains out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very Strongly Leaning?
Er... unusual phrase there...

Arkansas is more likely to go Dem than NH.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gore publically distanced himself from Clinton and refused to have anything to do with him in the campaign, costing him a state he thought he would win easily.
He was not seen as Clinton's VP, had he been he would have won AR and would be sitting in the White House now.

NH seems to have swung to the right recently, and Vermont may be returning to it's old ways now that Dean is over the hill.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would have thought that Vermont's old ways would have been kinda obvious...
Vermont's old ways=GOP

On the second question, I don't know who the Dem nominee is yet, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some fact's about Vermont.

Bernie Sanders is re-elected every 2 years, because he is an excellent constituancy Representative, not because he is a Socialist.
Like plenty of rural areas, Vermont habitually vote splits.

The Governer of VT is a Republican, as is the State House.

One of it's Senator's is a Democrat, the other is an Independent, who was elected as a Republican.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Burlington is left wing (and is a stronghold of the Progressive Party) and Central VT leans Dem nowadays, but the rest of the state is Yankee Republican (like NH).
VT as a whole is not left wing, but is certainly exceedingly bloody minded and if Dean isn't on the ticket will be very hard to predict.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would only take a 4.9% swing for Bush to pick VT up.
I'm not saying he will, what I am saying is that if turnout is low in Burlington, The Dems might be in trouble in VT.

Most states could go either way... this isn't to say will but that they might.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If CA split into North California and South California, I would guess that North California would be almost a Western version of Massachusetts, while a South California would be a tossup state.