How many Democratic House freshmen are vulnerable in 2008?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You don't think that Shea-Porter is vulnerable?

Hodes should be pretty safe o/c.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Their upset winners were in heavily or leaning Democratic districts such as IA-02 and NH-01.

NH-1 is a natural swing district methinks, but no more than that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Re: FL-16, Negron did manage to largely negate the Foley effect with a good slogan: "Punch Foley for Negron", "punch Foley" makes it sound more like punishing him and was a good way to get past the obstacle of people having to vote for Foley. I agree with Verily, it went Democratic more because it was just an open marginal district in a Democratic year. Mahoney is fairly moderate, so he can very well hang on.

If Foley had just retired without scandal, the GOP would have held that district.