UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot of it is linked to the economic recovery of Manchester from the late 1990s onwards: Stretford itself is now essentially part of the inner city, and what were once middling suburbs are now inner suburbs. As far as historical boundaries are concerned, a constituency with the present boundaries would have been Labour in at least 1964 and 1974 (Oct) as well as 1966 due to the inclusion of Partington and Carrington (both on the other side of the Mersey therefore in Cheshire) in the post-1997 constituency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Urmston has relatively high rates of people working in certain parts of the public sector without being middle class enough overall for that not to become electorally problematic for the Conservative Party these days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As you presumably know there was a council by-election in Wigan yesterday with a turnout of 5.3%; Britain Elects suggests this may be a record low.

And it has been claimed quite reliably that a significant number of postal votes went astray there - as with a contest in Andover with a sub-10% turnout despite it being quite keenly fought between the Tories and LibDems (the latter won)

I wonder whether the latter ends up in an Election Court? Obviously the former won't as the outcome was rather lopsided, but...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing to note about Selby & Ainsty is that the new Selby-area constituency presently proposed by the Boundary Commission would be a lot more favourable to Labour: Tadcaster and the affluent villages to it's North West are replaced by a dense cluster of ex-mining villages near Leeds. So in the event of a by-election it would make obvious sense to really go for it; either to get an incumbent or some extra local momentum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect they would be about that strong for Labour in a national election now, but not in the last few GEs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL Nadine Dorries.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL Nadine Dorries.

LOL Boris Johnson.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL Nadine Dorries.

LOL Boris Johnson.

LOL Nigel Adams.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On an entirely different subject, money laundering is a very serious matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, I hear the Steppe is quite magnificent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A fun piece of trivia regarding Somerton & Frome is that David Heath won it four times in a row for the LibDems, but never with a percentage majority higher than 3% and only once with a majority over one thousand.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah s'Right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is structurally quite a low-swinging constituency, as were the various Uxbridge seats that preceded it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At this rate the only saving grace will be a few seats in the Black Country and the Tees Valley and even those wouldn’t be nailed on.

Nope. I've done some number crunching for the local results transposed to the new constituencies in the Black Country. And. Er. Well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not obvious.  It was Tory in 2005 by about 4.3 percentage points according to the "official" notional results, and if you extrapolate the swings in the then Selby back you get it being Tory by a whisker in 2001 and Labour by a slightly larger whisker in 1997.  But I suspect that those 2005 notionals over-estimated the Lib Dems and under-estimated Labour in the part of the old Selby which went into York Outer, and hence did the reverse in the bit which stayed with Selby.  (Part of the reason I suspect that is that the 2010 vote share changes in Selby & Ainsty become less extreme if you assume that.)  If that's right, then it would tend to suggest that S & A was actually carried by the Tories in 1997.

The Yorkshire notionals for the last boundary review were atrocious, weren't they? In this case the issue was a failure to realize how much of the massive LibDem dominance in the non-York parts of York UA was a purely local elections thing. Grogan will have topped the poll in both Fulford and Heslington even in 2005...

If not 1997, then possibly 1945, when Barkston Ash was very close, but I haven't attempted to analyse the difference between the two constituencies.  Otherwise the answer may be "never".

That's a tricky one as so much  of Barkston Ash was further west and as large parts of post-83 Selby constituencies were previously in the East Riding, but it might be worth having a look over the map. The Labour candidate who near won in 1945 was Bert Hazell, later the last Labour MP for North Norfolk and President of the Farm Workers union.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Curious that this announcement came this week, huh?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously let us not prejudge outcomes as by-elections are odd things, but that the possibility is almost being shrugged off despite there being no special factors in any of the constituencies up is... er...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So at this stage, rumours are often unreliable as no votes will have been counted yet: anything you hear that isn't expectation management and/or denial, nerves etc. is a reflection of polling day feedback. Which isn't rubbish, but doesn't tell you everything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They must be winning by miles to be confident enough to have started this already.

Normally at this stage official party people hedge even if they think they're likely well ahead, so... er...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I struggle to quite believe the suggested figures, but he has a good record with these things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember that it's still rather early and that rumours can still be deceptive at this stage.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please behave.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As well as everything else, I have suspected for a while that Johnson may have had a negative personal vote. The constituency remains a Conservative stronghold in local elections, even last years which were generally very bad in the capital.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why didn't Khan, an outspoken and controversial big-city mayor, simply find a bunch of undead Blitz victims to "vote for" Labour?

Sadly that option only exists within the boundaries of the former London County Council (RIP Herbert Morrison Problematic FF), and this constituency is in Deepest Middlesex.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Declaration due, we are told, in God's Own County. If rumours be true, well, we'll see.