Canada 2006: Predictions & Prediction-Aiding-Maps thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Might as well do a seperate thread for this.
I'll be doing predictions like I did for the U.K election in this thread (I'll find the key for that shortly) but I've also decided to post the demographic maps I'm colouring in here as well (to avoid cluttering a certain other thread).
To avoid the cluttering of the main thread, please post predictions here or in some new thread.

Map key (yes, yes, I spotted the typo about two seconds after uploading the image...)



First finished maps are for Newfies. The outlines were blatently stolen copied from public domain maps on Wikipedia (originally drawn by Earl, unless there are two Earl Andrew Washburn's living in Ottawa) or nicked from that Atlas of Canada thingy. The data used to colour the maps is from the census website (Statcan). The idea of the maps is to help us all make more accurate predictions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newfoundland & Labrador

[Filuwaúrdjan]

whats the blue collar thing a measure of exactly? What jobs they do?

Manual jobs. The actual numbers are higher than the ones I'm using though; the official occupation groups lump people employed in "service" jobs with people employed in sales jobs; a significant proportion of the service jobs are manual jobs (I can understand the logic of grouping the two together; it would be nice to have seperate data on both without having to pay and arm and a leg for it. It's even worse with the misers that run the Aussie census stuff <insert long rant here>)
While this effects the overall numbers, it probably doesn't mess with the geography of blue collar jobs much... with one exception (certain post-industrial areas).
National average is about 26% (as of last census). Most blue collar provinces are P.E.I, Saskatchewan and Newfies. Only province significantly under the national average is B.C (most of the Lower Mainland is very white collar IIRC).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

EDIT: Southern Ontario income map is more than half done. Will almost certainly be finished, uploaded and posted tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And it is done:



Couple of things;

1. I wasn't aware that the outer suburbs of Ottawa were that rich... does that mean that being a civil servant pays better than over here?
2. I actually had to add a new colour for three ridings in and around Toronto as the average household income was over $100k in all of them...
3. The income patterns around Toronto are very interesting; especially the sharp difference between the city's outer-northern ridings and the Richmond Hill et al area just north of them.

EDIT: for some reason the forum is auto-resizeing the image

[Filuwaúrdjan]

were the conservatives ever competitive in newfoundland?

Federally? Occasionally; in 1997 they did well due to the general Atlantic backlash against the Liberals (main cause was cuts to employment insurance IIRC) and I think they did well in some elections around the early '80's.
From memory they either swept or came close to sweeping the province one election in the '60's or '70's for some reason... will have to check.

Provincially they're in power at the moment; the previous Liberal government had made itself extremely unpopular for some reason and there was talk of a wipeout (didn't happen though).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al: The Ottawa suburbs are rich because of the high tech sector. At least in the west end like Nepean and Kanata.

Makes sense actually

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Also makes sense

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So there's a cluster in the inner-northeastern area (that's the Vanier riding isn't it?) and lower densities further east, until the extreme eastern edge of the city. I know that east of Ottawa is very Francophone, so it'd be interesting to know whether or not that concentration is due to people from that area moving to Ottawa, or people from the Francophone concentration in Ottawa moving out to the area.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Couple of things;

1. I'm about to start on the blue collar map for southern Ontario; to make predictions easier I'm thinking of not including the occupation group that includes "occupations unique to primary industry" (in southern Ontario this overwhelmingly translates as "agriculture"). You can probably all see the problems this might cause with a map drawn to help predictions... (the national average if you remove primary industries is 21.7%, btw). An alternative would be to keep the primary industries, but add the "sales and service" occupation group (taking the national average up to 49.6%). I'm leaning towards just not including primary industries (which would mean making a seperate map of employment in primary industries in some areas) but some feedback would be nice.

2. I found my key:

S: Safe
SL: Strong Lean
L: Lean
M: Marginal
SF: Slight Lean
NCF: No Clear Favourite

* indicates a pickup

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cool map
The relatively high numbers in rural Central Ontario are intriguing...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have you seen the 1990 provincial map?

Yep

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Hmm... that's true. And not always by same margins; there was a big majority in the provincial riding that made up most of what is now Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock. I suppose that demographically it's not that bad for the NDP; taking a wild guess, do they just lack the organisation?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Census division thing is great So, would Martin have won Soo on the previous boundaries?
"Blue collar" map coming along nicely; most blue collar riding is York West (over 40%). Using that definition of blue collar (as opposed to the one on the Newfies map) it *might* actually be the most blue collar in Canada; I'll have to check. Certainly one of the highest.
Was also suprised at how blue collar Brampton is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes he would have, as the riding was just the city of SSM. Finally, some gerrymandering in favour of the NDP!

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Strange really. IIRC the previous MP was fairly popular. Interestingly Soo on the other side of the water voted very narrowly for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

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Probably a factor even though it needn't be; NDP can do well in areas out West that aren't *exactly* strongholds of social liberalism. Depends what issues are stressed; which is where organisation comes into it...
It'll be interesting to see what % the NDP get in some of those ridings now that the Liberal incumbents have (in many cases) been ousted actually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And it is done:


The pattern within the GTA is very interesting; Brampton is much more blue collar than I'd assumed, as are some of the York ridings. Toronto-Danforth also has an unusally high % for a downtown riding.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brant County is initself an enitre riding. In Brant, which voted Liberal, we see an obvious urban/rural split. It's unfortunate that all of rural brant county is now in the same municipality, because I cant show any more detail than I have for rural Brant. As for Brantford, it was a split between the NDP and the Liberals, with the Liberals in the clear lead  though. Out in the Six Nations reserve, it voted Liberal fairly strongly, with the NDP in second  while the New Credit reserve voted NDP by one vote. Both reserves are in reality have the county boundary cutting through them, but for purposes of this map, I have included them in Brant County for their entirety, as they are both in the Brant riding in their entirety.

Very interesting; Brant is probably one of the most unpredictable ridings of this election methinks. How'd the Liberals and NDP do in the rural municipality?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

British Columbia

Lower Mainland

Vancouver Centre: NCF
Vancouver East: NDP S
Vancouver Kingsway: NCF
Vancouver Quadra: Lib S
Vancouver South: Lib SL
Burnaby-Douglas: NDP M
Burnaby-New Westminster: NCF
New Westminster-Coquitlam: NCF
North Vancouver: Lib SF
Richmond: Lib L
Delta-Richmond East: Con L
Surrey North: NDP L*
Newton-North Delta: NCF
Fleetwood-Port Kells: NCF
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale: NCF
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country: Lib SF*
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam: NCF
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission: NCF
Abbotsford: Con S
Langley: Con S
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon: Con S

Interior

Skeena-Bulkley Valley: NDP M
Prince George-Peace River: Con S
Cariboo-Prince George: Con L
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Con M
Kootenay-Columbia: Con S
British Columbia Southern Interior: NDP SF*
North Okanagan-Shuswap: Con SL
Okanagan-Coquihalla: Con S
Kelowna-Lake Country: Con S

Vancouver Island

Vancouver Island North: NDP SF*
Nanaimo-Alberni: NCF
Nanaimo-Cowichan: NDP S
Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca: NCF
Saanich-Gulf Islands: NCF
Victoria: NDP SF*

These predictions can and will change

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

You guys have an even crazier local government setup than us!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

You guys have an even crazier local government setup than us!

The worst part is there are no parties in municipal elections

By law?