Wales 2007 (National Assembly Elections)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually Law left Labour just before he announced he was running as an Independent Labour candidate; the whole row over the shortlist and everything that's sprung from it has been just... strange...
I'd be suprised if he stood for the Assembly seat again; he's not a well man and he'll probably choose between Westminster and the Assembly (which is obviously a very tough decision ). If he retires I think an open shortlist will be chosen...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I happened to meet Mr. Law at the Royal Welsh Show (along with at least 17 other Assembly Members including all those elected to Westminster) and they all said the same thing "I am standing from the Assembly in 2007"

And you believed them all?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC the new seats will be used but maybe not. Anyways...

Aberavon Lab 42%
Alyn and Deeside Lab 23%

Obviously these two are up in the air

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Depends what Law does. Either way absurdly safe Lab or safe Ind Lab.

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LibDems will hold, but by how much depends on how all the tactical stuff works out. Things would be very interesting with the pre-83 boundaries, but they're never coming back...

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Should be safe enough

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As Caernarfon, safe Nat. Post-boundary changes this should be one to watch methinks.

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Safe

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Safe; majority should fall a little bit though (to about 25%-30% I think)

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Will be tough to hold this

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Safe

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There's an amusing possibility of these two flipping around; Plaid's AM in Carmarthen East is absolutely dire and won't have the sudden death of a former M.P for the seat and Plaid leader just before the election to help him out. On other hand, they had a good candidate in Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South last election and he's going to run again IIRC.

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Labour gain as every polling station outside Lampeter vanishes into thin air
In all seriousness, I think that both Plaid and the LibDems will try hard at this one... how likely would you say a repeat of the upset in the General Election is?

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Majority will go up methinks

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Very close either way again (even though it shouldn't be)

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Boundary changes confuse this...

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All safe

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Labour will probably increase their majority a bit

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All safe

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Depends on turnout

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Majority to go up methinks

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Safe

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Could be interesting if the comically divided opposition starts voting tactically. Don't think that'll happen though.

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Safe

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Too unpredictable to make a guess

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Easy Labour gain

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Too unpredictable to make a guess

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thankfully there are NO boundary changes for the 2007 elections (thank goodness)

Interesting; I remember reading a news report that said the opposite. Will have to check the boundary commission's site then.

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That might actually be Labour's most vunerable seat; Morgan only held on at Westminster level because of a personal vote and it really shouldn't be a Labour seat...

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IIRC the 2% margin was actually over the Plaid candidate (will check. Actually I'm suprised I've not been-a-making maps...)

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It does look better in a slightly orangish yellow than green so, yay!

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Probably not, but the Labour majority will be down on last time

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That pretty much goes without saying

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That said, most of the changes in Wales are relatively minor, and 17 constituencies remain totally untouched with a number of relatively minor changes that involve at most 200 electors. The only significant changes are in the Gwynned and West Clwyd area

Thanks for checking; net result of the boundary changes makes Caernarfon (renamed Arfon) a tempting Labour target. There was a proposal to add a new seat around Cardiff IIRC, but the idea was dropped before the commision started work.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sort of; the part of the Merioneth seat not in the old county of Merioneth goes to Conwy, which loses Bangor and is renamed Aberconwy. Caernarfon loses the Lleyn, gains Bangor and is renamed Arfon. Basically fitting the boundaries in with local government boundaries and ending the pro-Plaid gerrymander in the area.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One big, big problem with notional results in most of Wales; there are so many independent councillers...

Aberconwy Plaid Cymru (My guess that Aberconwy would vote Plaid comes from the marginal status of Lab / PC Conwy plunging down into rock solid Meirionnydd)

The Nant Conwy area (historically in Caernarfonshire) is quite odd; it's actually got some reasonably well off rural areas (very rare in NW Wales) which are overwhelmingly Plaid but before they came along used to vote Tory (I think)... but you've also got the inevitable slate towns, which vote Labour when they run the right sort of candidate, but Plaid when they don't.
The new Aberconwy seat could potentially be a four way marginal; the LibDems still do well in parts locally (I'm still not sure what caused the huge collapse in non-local elections though) and the Tories didn't do *terribly* in the Westminster election...

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They do best in the Lleyn; it's usually one of their best areas in the whole of Wales. Caernarfon itself is generally Labour inclined, as is Bangor and the slate towns south of it, although (mostly due to the language issue) Plaid have a following in all of them.
In Westminster terms, it's a notional Labour seat, no doubt about that and maybe by a large margin, but I've no idea who'd notionally have won it for the Assembly elections either. I'll have a look at the council results...

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^^^

The old git is basically an independent *anyway* these days...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Council elections not much help; none of the parties run in enough wards.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Council elections not much help; none of the parties run in enough wards.

I know the feeling. Labour have pretty much given up on entire districts/boroughs in parts of Surrey and Sussex.

*wishes that General Election results by ward were realised*

An especially bizarre case was in the area around Blaenau Ffestiniog; of the three wards, Labour didn't run anyone in the eastern two and Plaid didn't run anyone in the western ward. Seeing as Labour and Plaid are pretty much the only parties anyone up there votes for, all three councillers were either unopposed or only had a token independent run against them. Demographically all three wards are very similer; some of the highest % of Welsh speakers in Wales, very blue collar etc.
Methinks a deal may have been struck.