UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll update my map in the other thread in the Intl Elections subforum, but Boris' campaign launch has been a huge success by the looks of it. I don't know how many were supporting him already, but 12 MPs announced their support for him. Two MPs (Sheryll Murray and Daniel Kawczynski) were allegedly previously supporting someone else.

They were all no doubt held back- there’s not been a huge rush

And frankly it still isn't particularly impressive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They did run Rabina Khan in the EU elections though, i.e. the former protege of the notoriously corrupt and crypto-islamist mayor of tower hamlets Luftur Rahman.

Just to correct a common misconception: Rahman was never any kind of Islamist, crypto or other, simply a hilariously corrupt Bengali machine politician who operated on a quid pro quo basis when it came to the exchange of favours, services and policies for votes. Not that association with the guy is ever a good sign in a political figure...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a Lib Dem by any means, but they seem to be the party that is least affected by the problem of poor MPs/problems resulting from vetting procedures.

That's only because their present parliamentary party really could fit into a single taxi, albeit not legally. Historically speaking at least (and they've not changed how they go about picking candidates!) their record on this matter is worse than average.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Umunna has apparently joined the LibDems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My extremely Problematic opinion, one carefully calculated to cause the widest possible offence, is that there are parallels between what's happened to Labour of late and the manner in which Dutch Elm Disease spreads and, well, functions...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean, Romford was a safe Conservative seat going into the 1997 election. It's part of a wider belt of humdrum but prosperous outer suburbia that swung sharply towards the Conservatives in the 1970s and where Labour's good performances in 1997 were as much of a fluke landslide one-off as Labour's good performances in e.g. rural East Anglia that same election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway. Mark Field. Yikes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not seen the full survey, but 'excludes 29% who did not answer' is, for the record, a pretty huge red flag for what is technically a serious constitutional question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The reality is that selection issues are mostly about ambitions and egos - everything else simply provides a pretext. So the critical issue in most cases would be whether there are serious contenders lurking around who fancy their chances.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The arrogance is extraordinary. Beyond that there's not much worth saying.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Keith Vaz has called for the decision that the vote of Keith Vaz was critical to reach to be overturned at once. We have reached unprecedented levels of Keith Vaznness. We have all of us, all of us, lost the Keith Vaz Game.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sir Kevin Barron is to retire at the next election, whenever it shall be. A former miner (famously attacked by a policeman during the 1984-5 strike) who has held a changing Rother Valley since 1983 and who has moved inch by inch rightwards pretty much every year. He has been a very useful, public spirited parliamentarian who has done a lot of good work in the background over the decades, particularly on public health issues. Recently he led an utterly doomed campaign to try to sort out harassment and bullying issues as regards Commons staff and nearly bankrupted UKIP with a successful claim for libel. Not without his flaws, but he'll be missed. Significant boundary changes in 2010 and the end of mining mean that Rother Valley isn't the stronghold it was; Labour will presumably want to avoid another Gower and should take care with candidate selection.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's not much point in trying to make rational predictions. Johnson is too impulsive and too cowardly for that - it isn't as if we can ever work out how those things balance out in any individual instance.