UK Boundary Changes (never too early to start)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought I might get started on working out the partisan effects of the boundary changes for the next election:

Yay!
Been having similer thoughts myself; don't know much about voting patterns down South though.

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That result was odd bearing in mind the narrow Labour holds in the rest of North Kent. Only demographic difference I can find is a large Sikh population in Gravesend. Were there any local issues?

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In the best traditions of that seat for sure
Some majorities there in the '50's were smaller though

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Can you explain the reasons for the bizarre boundaries in the Isle of Thanet please?

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Interesting; although in many ways most of the Kent Labour seats are more or less dead heats anyway.

Oh, another question; why is the Maidstone area split up like that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll do a county a week. I should therefore finish sometime next year.

I can get some northern one's done if you like

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Seriously? Wow. That'd be like finding a load of executive housing somewhere in the Rhondda...
 

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Yeeeeeesssssss... that's certainly a... er... "interestingly" shaped seat now... "more illogical than Maidstone"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You can work from the top of the country, and I'll work up, and sometime in the New Year we can meet in the Midlands.

O.K

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

I apologise for the lateness of this County - I was busy over the weekend with fantasy elections on top of various other stuff. I hope to deliver West Sussex this weekend on time.

Might as well use this oppertunity to say that I've not been able to start doing up North yet; my computer is on it's last legs and starts acting oddly when I open up the boundary commision files. Getting a new one in a few days, hopefully.

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Amusingly that result also backs up one of the better reasons for supporting FPTP (localism basically). That's the great thing about debates based around polar opposites

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pbc/default.asp (official boundary commision site. Has the maps (which are very large), the offical reports, the provision reports, minutes of some of the hearings and summaries of the responses of political figures to the new constituencies)
www.statistics.gov.uk (if you have an SVG viewer some of the maps on Neighbourhood Statistics are excellent)
www.nomisweb.co.uk (old wards in Met counties though)

Some local authorities also have ward maps; some are very nice, some are hell

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Might as well get some with sod all changes done:

Northumberland

Boundary Commission reports, maps, etc.

The Present Landscape

Of the 4 constituencies in Northumberland, 2 were won by Labour, 1 by the Tories and 1 by the LibDems

The two Labour seats (Wansbeck, Blyth Valley) are classic Northeast mining seats and both have majorities over 20%.
Wansbeck (called Morpeth until 1983) has been Labour since 1945 and Blyth Valley has been Labour since October 1974 (when it was regained from an Independent Labour MP) and nearly fell to the SDP in 1987. Normal service as since resumed.
Both Murphy and Campbell put in good showings in the General Election and neither seat appears to be at risk.

Hexham is a huge rural seat that stretches from the northern suburbs of Newcastle to the Scottish border and has been held by the Conservatives for over 80 years.
For pretty much all that period it was a rock-solid stronghold but, to just about everyone's suprise, it suddenly turned marginal in 1997 with Labour missing out by a handful of votes. Since then Peter Atkinson has been able to rebuild his majority to a respectable 12% (albeit with sod all Labour activity in 2005) but the seat remains a longterm Labour target and could be tough to hold onto when he retires.

Berwick upon Tweed is more a Borders constituency than a Northeast one and has been held by socially conservative LibDem Alan Beith since a by-election in the early '70's. Over the years he's built up a huge personal vote in what was once a safe Tory seat and his majority now stands at 24%. The idea that he might lose is unthinkable.
But when he retires, all hell will break loose; Berwick has all the makings of a tight three-way marginal and could be a very unpredictable seat.

Boundary Changes

No boundary changes are proposed to either Wansbeck or Blyth Valley. Only minor changes are proposed to the Berwick upon Tweed and Hexham constituencies with the other half of the Hartburn ward being added to Berwick.

Net Result of Boundary changes

The political landscape will remain the same; the transfer of a couple of hundred voters is unlikely to have any serious effects.