UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is absolutely a possibility, yes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wales had very odd politics during the inter-war years due to the resilience of the Liberal Party in the countryside, so comparisons aren't particularly useful (even if they do add to the psychological response to such figures).

Anyway, this fits within the general framework of YouGov's UK-wide polls so is basically as expected. Would be good (well useful) if other firms polled Wales a few times during the campaign actually.

It is worth noting, just for the record, that Welsh polling does have a long track record of exaggerating support for parties with obvious momentum, even more so than for UK-wide polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing I'll remind everyone of, though, is that landslides and the patterns seen in them are ephemeral. Labour won a majority of seats in Shropshire in 1997 and 2001 for instance (in fact in 2001 the Conservatives were reduced to just one seat in the county). In a way they are the weirdest and least socially reflective of elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see the people other than me have noted that David 'The Jews' Ward is indeed an endorsed Liberal Democrat candidate this election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a consensus on here that the Conservatives under PM Theresa May are on the brink of their own version of the 1997 general election?

Not a relevant comparison; a completely different situation. The correct points of comparison would be to elections in the 1980s or (if it gets really bad) the 1930s. Or if it is less bad then to the 1950s, I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yet they mostly certainly haven't.

I don't know, public services improved a lot in response to the massive injection of £££ that followed. And so on. It's just that it turns out that history doesn't come to a.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

She's not wrong. Without the UK, momentum could build up for other exits and the Euro could cripple. Of course they are doing all they can to make sure May doesn't triumph in June.

Your posts in this thread really do prove the truth of that old adage about to remain silent and being thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt don't they?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

It's just bizarre sub-Stanley Baldwin rubbish. Of course that style worked for him often enough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have to say that I'm deeply uncomfortable - and not just because I worry it might be effective - at May's use of the trappings of State for an election address. This is very much Not Done.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But if 1983 and 1987 in which local and national election were held right after another are any guide most likely the CON vote will be several percentages above 38%

They weren't held during the campaign period but before a GE was even called.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let us not overanalyse unweighted subsamples from polls especially when very small. There's enough Tier-Z level #analysis in this thread as it is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the same ICM poll.  If UKIP will only run candidates in some 100 seats and relevant only in a subset of that this seems to be a perfect storm brewing for a large vote share surge for CON.

Not sure if there will be that much of an effect because most of those crossing over to the Tories will do so whether there's a UKIP candidate or not (and, for however much this is worth, evidence from Thursday suggests that these people are disproportionately concentrated in the countryside and in areas with a lot of post-1950 housing developments). Probably all three mainstream parties get a little upwards tick as a result, probably turnout goes down (or is lower than would otherwise be) as a result. With the former happening in part because of the latter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite an outlier. Take it with a grain of salt.

TNS don't have the best of reputations so salt is usually advisable when consuming their polls, but, and with all the respect to which you are due, I am not sure if you understand what the word 'outlier' means.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm sure you have more things to do in life than to continuously insult my intelligence. Begone.

Happy to confirm on this forum is a very long way down the list of my priorities

But is there a way of making this particular point - which is an important point - without harming your evidently rather delicate ego? Because you seem to regard being informed that you are wrong as an insult, which is tricky to get around.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not really an ideal manifesto if you were seriously challenging for power, but if the purpose is to save as much furniture as possible then it could be quite serviceable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It robs Labour of the opportunity for a managed rollout.

That never happens anyway. The main effect of the leaking of a draft is more attention on it than would otherwise be the case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't we have a No ComRes rule here?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour aren't gaining Finchley with the present Leader. Maybe next time, who knows. Anyway...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are really not running the sort of campaign likely to go down well there anyway...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Spoiler alert: the model is rubbish, the poll is a joke, Ashcroft is wasting his money and there's a special layer of Hell reserved exclusively for people who hawk around poll subsambles as the revealed truth.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He also has Tom Watson (West Bromwhich East) losing his seat, and I've heard some people in the party are sh**tting themselves over Tom losing

It was tight back in the 1980s but mostly I think that just tells you that when the national situation is bad a lot of people in Labour head into a sort of depressed hysteria about everything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most Labour members - and note that the membership is not and never has been stable; people drift in and out, always have done - are not particularly closely aligned to this or that faction. And what is true for members applies double - quadruple perhaps even - for voters...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov: Con 49, Labour 31, LDem 9, UKIP 3, Others ??
ComRes: Con 48, Labour 30, LDem 10, UKIP 5, SNP 4, Greens 3
Opinium: Con 47, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 5, SNP 5 Greens 2
ORB: Con 46, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 7, Others ??

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another legendary Godsiff leaflet to add to your collection...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm sill baffled, why the hell would Corbyn appoint this man out of all people ....

Because he's Chief of Staff to Len McCluskey?