UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

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The South East.

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East Midlands.

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Eastern England.

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Most of the South East is out of bounds to Labour even in a really good year. But it was ever thus: the future of the Labour Party does not, I suspect, rest on its ability to win Surrey.

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The North West.

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LibDems polled just 6% in Colne Valley. For historical reasons that's just... Jesus.

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Yorkshire and The Humber.

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Labour took Liverpool Walton with 81.3%! that's probably the highest % in this election, couldn't find a higher one in recent campaigns. is this a record?

Highest figure on record for Labour is IIRC 91% in West Ham Silvertown in 1945.

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The North East.

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Are there any exit polls with subs such as ethnicity, religion etc?

Not anymore, but even if there still was why would you trust it?

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I'll probably do my own UK-wide outline map at some point, but for now, why not use the old classic?

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I'm not aware of any recent wins from general elections where they have actually lost their deposit. Anybody?

Not sure. Let's check a few possible candidates.

Liverpool Wavertree is the partial successor to Liverpool Mossley Hill - 6.0% there. Equally they weren't far off in Colne Valley - 6.0% again.

Found one! Leeds West (1983-87) - 3.9%

And another! Leicester South (2004b-05) - 4.6%

And another! Cambridgeshire North East (1973-87) - 4.5%

And an arguable one - Erith & Thamesmead - 2.3%. Thamesmead was part of Woolwich which, as you know, was an SDP seat in the 1980s. Which leads me to note that deposits were also lost in both Plymouth seats.

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Maybe they do - eventually. I found 2010 - https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2613/How-Britain-Voted-in-2010.aspx?view=wide

I believe those are just adjusted poll aggregate data.

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Any idea why Labour had such an epic fail in Hendon, especially compared to the rest of north London?

I suspect part of the issue was that Dismore overperformed in 2010 (that he nearly held on was a real surprise) and that he did so based on his personal appeal. Loss of incumbency won't have helped there. Its possible that he lost some Orthodox Jewish support due to a dislike of Miliband's foreign policy views, but that wouldn't be enough votes to account for the result (though I'm sure that will be cited as the reason), at least not without some other factor.

But I note that the Tories also had decent results in the Harrow seats. Are the Tories making further inroads with the growing Hindu community - even if only the middle class ones - in N.W. London perhaps?

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If I may cheat, there's also the matter of Mike Hancock's 1.7% in Portsmouth South ;-)

Ah, but he was standing for United Russia.

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I'm mainly surprised by their strength in Devon. Wtf?

Some towns in Devon have a certain alternative vibe (Totnes especially) and there's also the possibility that UKIP's approach from last year onwards was less attractive to some former Liberal voters out there.

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Outside London and Scotland it's striking quite how evenly distributed their support was; even more than I was expecting actually.

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Can anyone tell me what the point is of voting for the Speaker seeking reelection, if that person never takes a position on any substantive issue? It effectively disenfranchises the entire constituency.

Tradition.

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Can someone more knowledgeable than me discuss whether the Cameron government will be able to last the entire five year term, assuming the usual by-election losses one would anticipate?  Can they assume support from the DUP and the handful of LDs?

The majority is large enough that it's loss over the course of the parliament is not certain, but is small enough that it is not unlikely. Whether it lasts for the full course of this parliament depends to a considerable extent on luck.

On the second point, certainly not. The DUP have no love for the Tories and would demand payment in exchange for votes. Lord knows with regards to the LibDems.

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What you interpreted as reassuring was in fact the very opposite. The DUP are a bunch of shameless political whores. So by payment I mean payment: they would ask for even more government money to be spent on Northern Ireland. Perhaps a new road for every tricky vote or a giant statue of Ian Paisley in the middle of Ballymena.

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But all Unionist politicians are bad for this kind of thing. Take the Ulster Scots scam for instance. If state money goes on the dirty Taig language, we should invent our own one to have state money spent on it!

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It's an irrelevant statistic. It's as bad as when people used to add together Labour and Alliance totals in the 1980s.

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Fair to say that they didn't have a good night.

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