UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now, turnout will be a lot lower in the by-election (obviously) and those that do vote will be much more tempted by smaller parties than in a General Election (obviously).

The Conservatives will presumably be trying to turn out at least half of their 2010 vote; it is hard to lose a by-election these days if you poll c.14k votes. Basically the seat is only vulnerable if they fail to do this. The circumstances of the poll, their less than spectacular candidate and the proximity to the Euro elections don't help, but we'll see.

UKIP polled slightly under two thousand votes in 2010; two thousand votes is terrible in a General Election, but counts for a lot more in a by-election if only as a kernel. Unless turnout is shockingly awful for a place like this, they probably need 10k at minimum to have a chance at winning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think it depends. Reform won a by-election before their breakthrough, and it probably helped them. If UKIP could elect a personable person without any peculiar views, it would be good for their GE prospects. In Reform's case, it gave them four years to hammer the Tories on Quebec/the constitution. A good UKIPer in Westminister would be able to do the same to the British Tories with Europe.

UKIP's candidate here is Roger Helmer who would be a walking disaster as an MP for various reasons.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

telegenic Farage

Two words that I never thought I would see combined without irony...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

However, Rushcliffe includes West Bridgford which will have been comparatively poor for UKIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are those reasons?

He has been an MEP for fifteen years. British MEPs are mostly lazy morons who do very little work, unless you count the abuse of expenses as work. British voters are fine with this because they do not care about the European Parliament and are barely aware that it exists. British MPs, however, are expected to be active, whether as parliamentarians or as constituency representatives. Voters do not like it when this is not the case. And as a consequence of the 2009 expenses farrago, a very considerable degree of probity and good behavior is now not only expected but demanded.

In other words, there's a reason why the George Galloway Express moves from city to city rather than staying put.

Additionally, he's an idiot who often says stupid and offensive things. That's not so damaging if it's councillor x or candidate y, but if it is an MP, reactions are generally more severe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By-elections usually declare after one; sometimes much later.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours suggest a 1. Tory, 2. UKIP, 3. Labour lineup, for whatever that's worth. But there are less rumours and they are less detailed than is the norm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weird sh!t happens in circus by-elections. This is the first one for a while, I suppose. Low turnout but not an embarrassing low turnout.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout was 52.8%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But note that this is a high turnout constituency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Farage has conceded on behalf of Helmer (!) and says the Tories have won by c. 2,500

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More to the point, they do have an existing local government base here (a bigger one that Labour, actually). If these rumours are true, that's worse for them than I expected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good result for the Tories under the circumstances; a big majority. Pleased the Labour vote didn't collapse horribly or anything, LibDem vote even worse than expected. This is somewhere where they still have councillors.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think this was an ideal seat for UKIP, but they were clearly trying to win and only getting 25% must be disappointing for them. 

While the circumstances were certainly ideal (seat vacant due to a corruption scandal, poll held shortly after the Euro elections) and the Tories had the sort of candidate that can could have lost a by-election all by themselves back when a certain yellow hued party enjoyed rather than dreaded them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember when Robert Jenrick was an unsuccessful candidate in local elections in Broseley. This means that the awful local rag will probably big up The Shropshire Connection of New Tory MP or some similar nauseating bollocks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. He's exactly the sort of candidate that - back when the LibDems were a danger in by-elections - the Tories had a habit of wishing they hadn't selected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eye Manor even has its own wikipedia entry!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

South Cambridgeshire is a potential by-election; Andrew Lansley being widely associated with Britain's EC spot. Most of the area has been represented by the Tories since 1950. Lansley's majority is solid rather than large (13.3%) but that's over the LibDems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't find the Euro election results though, which may be more helpful.

No, they wouldn't be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will there even be a by-election, though?  I suspect that if the seat becomes vacant too late for one before Christmas, it'll just be left vacant.

Yeah, there's a good chance of that being so.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Think it still includes a ward of Cambridge proper.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edith of Wessex possibly? But I'm not actually sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mike Hancock's political career is clearly very very over now.

He will presumably try to avoid resigning his seat and his (soon to be former?) party would not wish for a by-election, which would be a circus and a free-for-all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, plainly he's not going to resign and cause a by-election; that would entail the abstract concept of shame. And if that hasn't kicked in by now, it never will...

After all, this is someone accused of being a dirty old man who wears a beige mac in public.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Kremlin must be very sad its pet shill turned out to be even more awful than suspected.

LOL yes. Must try harder!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Owen Patterson?

Paterson is an NFU hack, so, no.