Tasmania 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is going to be brutal and unpleasant, but I suppose it will be some vague relief to get it out of the way.

Anyway, Labor have been in power for sixteen years and have spent the past three in coalition with the Greens. Labor's base in Tasmania hate the Greens. Certain extremely unpopular - I would also add bloody stupid and motivated more by mawkish sentiment than anything else - forestry policies have also been pursued, which has made matters significantly worse.

The election will be on the 15th of March. The Liberals will win a comfortable majority unless something bizarre happens. Labor will be back at some point in the not so distant future (as happened after the heavy defeat of 1992).

Tasmania uses PR (based on federal electoral divisions) in state elections. All three party leaders have seats in the same division (Franklin: basically outer Hobart), hilariously enough. Currently Labor and the Liberals have ten seats a piece and the Greens five. Currently all divisions are 2-2-1.

Historically polling for state elections in Tasmania has underestimated Labor and overestimated the Greens.

That will do for now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Think it's more a pollster method issue.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a tendency for polls in Tasmania to underestimate the Labor vote for whatever reason, but even if that's the case again it won't make much of a difference to the result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's been all over for several years now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, at least this is out the way now. Let's hope that lessons can be learned.

And as always polls overestimated the Greens.