What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wisconsin and New Mexico.
I'm not *that* worried about PA (GOP registration has gone up... but this is to do with the Senate race)
Or Minnesota (Machine politrickery in the Duluth area has saved plenty of Democrat Presidential candidates in MN)
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GOP's most vunerable state is WV

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Over 60% of West Virginians can't be wrong!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not even that - the Unions act in the best interest of Union bosses.

Although this is the case with some Union bosses (*cough* Bob Crow *cough*)... most aren't that bad...
And Unions are needed. I admit the US Labor movement isn't exactly on the right side of competent... it's better than nothing (ala China).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Until China unionizes, manufacturing jobs won't come back here.  However, by the time China unionizes everything will be mechanized so the jobs won't really come home; the only jobs that will be left are those that require creativity/ingenuity, and require college education or vocational training.

I'm most worried eabout OH and VA.  To a lesser extent WV and NH but we don't need those: the House would select Bush over Kerry anyday.  The entire "North" only elects any Republicans because we still are fiscally conservative.  However, Bush isn't so he may loose the three northern states on that alone.  Virginia is pretty much MD and WV combined nowdays.  If Kerry takes WV he'll pobably take VA, he has no chance in MD.  Then we're screwed unless we take PA.  However the old conservative suburbs are trending Democratic after 30 years are GOP stringholds.  That's how MD, CA, NJ, etc switched.  If the process continues GA, NC, OH, IN, NV, and AZ will follow soon, but probably not till 08.

Our time of dominance in the Presidential arena is drwaing to a close, I just hope that we can squeeze out one last victory before the Dems take over.

The political trends in VA of late have been fascinating...the old Conservative Democrats are dying off and are being replaced, not by Republicans, but by Populist "Warner" Democrats. On it's own that would/should make VA competative in 2008/12... but at the same time the DC 'burbs, once a GOP stronghold, are switching to the Democrats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not just the DC suburbs.  All suburbs across the nation.  Bush won the Utah second with like 55%.  Regan won Salt Lake City with like 85%.  Same with the Nebraska second.  Same with the Kansas third, the Oklahoma second, and the Oklahoma third.  The Virginia first, second and tenth too.  In 15 years we've lost roughly 30% in all suburbs.  That's like 2% a year, 8% an election cycle.

It's happening in the older, inner-suburbs (the same is happening the UK actually)... while outer-suburbs and semi-rural suburbs are still strongly conservative.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By all I meant all across the country, not everywhere withing 2 hours of a city.  By suburb I meant that the area is within an hour off-peak of the city's beltway/beltline/bypass/whatever.  Two to three counties out from the city line, no farther.

Ahh... I see what you mean now. Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Virginian 'burb's are certainly trending Democrat (Fairfax voted for Warner)... though I think you might be right about the Philly 'burbs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not even that - the Unions act in the best interest of Union bosses.

Although this is the case with some Union bosses (*cough* Bob Crow *cough*)... most aren't that bad...

Ugh. Don't get me started on Bob Crow...........

Seriously, show me one London commuter who doesn't hate that man's guts.

"RMT... losing members, money, public support and now political influence"

I hate Bob Crow... but I live out in the Sticks so he can't hurt me...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well I'm generalizing to all of the suburbs in general.

Warner ran a much better campaign than the Republican (Earley or something like that)--coupled with the fact that some of Gilmore's failed policies[every one has a few, but these hurt more] came back to bite the GOP...

I think if the GOP gets closer to the center than the dems, then you'll see the burbs flip back...certainly would happened if the dems nominated Kuchinich >P

But if the GOP were to nominate someone like Guliani in 08 or a Pataki (hypotheticals), then the northern burbs would come back to the fold. I think.

While party registration numbers may(I stress may) have changed, I don't think ideology has.

Good points.
However unless the GOP changes direction, they are academic...
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BTW Warner won in Lynchburg!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Virginia's changed. The old Conservative Democrats in Southern VA are dying off and are being replaced by Populist "Warner" Democrats who are less likely to vote split.
Meanwhile the DC suburbs keep growing and keep growing more liberal.
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In 2001, Warner won in Lynchburg. That's proof enough that VA has changed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The key election is the 2001 Gubernatorial one... I'll make a map of it...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When a state like Virginia goes for a liberal all the rest of us in the South should start to worry.

Why? Virginia isn't the hotbed of conservatism that it used to be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Warner won in CD's: 3,4,5,8,9,11
Earley won in CD's: 1,2,6,7,10
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The key trend was how well Warner did in the rural South of the state (CD's:4,5,9), mostly as a result of building up a strong political machine there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Possible trend?

          SSSSSSS
          SSssssSS
          SSssUssSS
           SSssssSS
           SSSSSSS

U=urban core=Democrat
s=suburb=Trending Democrat (ex-GOP)
S=Outer suburb/"Exurb"=GOP
Real rural areas vary from state

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My map of the 2001 VA Gubernatorial election is about a third done (VA has all those fiddly independent cities etc)
It looks VERY different from the maps Beef posted

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You're shading your map for %'s?

Yep

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the case of Warner, it was the failure of his opponent, not a trend to the Left, that won him the election.

To say Warner won because of his oppenent isn't fair...
Inbetween his (narrow) defeat in the 1996 Senate race and the 2001 Gubernatorial election, Warner built up a machine in Southern Virginia by getting companies to invest there etc... and from what I hear this intensified after 2000 (Gore underperformed in Southern Virginia, BTW. His [apparent] stances on Coal and Tobacco hurt him a lot).
For a Democrat to win a Gubernatorial Election just after 9/11 (Virginia was attacked as well) was quite impressive.
Where he won it (see the map) was very impressive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is certainly a trend in Southern VA... like I said the Old conservative Democrats are dying off... and are being replaced by populist "Warner" Democrats.
I can't really comment on the VA burbs (I've not looked into them as much), but as VA is always "ahead of the curve" for the South Atlantic, similer patterns could well appear in NC soon.
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VA isn't the conservative stronghold it was a few years back... whats weird is that a lot of people don't realise/can't accept this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would however not be wrong to conclude that Virginia is trending liberal through observation of the media and demographics.  The DC Metro area contains roughly 30% of the state's population.  Bush won the VA portion of the DC metro area in 2000 by like an aggregate 7%.  This time he's going to loose it by like 5%.  That's a 12% shift in like 1/3, or a 4% shift in the overall.  VA will be close this time.

True. I don't see Bush winning Fairfax County this year... His main hope of hanging on to VA is rural Northern Virginia, the Richmond Outer suburbs and Virginia Beach

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rural NOVA has like 5% of the state's population.  I really don't see Bush winning the same kind of margins he had in 2000 in the Hampton Roads area again this time.  He may squeak by with 50.01% or something but definately not the 55% he had in 2000 in some counties.

Every vote counts... however the Warner machine in rural South VA should be able to overcome that...
Hampton Roads is the area East of Richmond with the indented coastline isn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The GOP probably won't spend anything at all in VA.  The Dems will.

Surely trying to hang onto a vunerable state that could decide the election would mean spending as much money as possible? Virginia as the WV of 2004?

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Good points.

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I read that:

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Most predictable trend this election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry people are dreaming if they think Colorado is in play.

That's true

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AL:  i respect your knowledge of virginia, but i think youre reading too much into the warner election.  first of all warner ran as a conservative.  the republicans were having trouble getting a budget passed.  allen and gilmore were blips on virginia's screen, the state has long history of democratic governors.

It's not so much the fact that he won... it's where he won that's interesting... and that the election came a few months after 9/11

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While there are a lot of Republicans in the Southside area (not as many as further north though) , my theory is that a lot of them used to be Conservative Dems and have switched there registration.

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Gore underperformed in 1 and 2

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The state has trended towards the Dems from the '80's certainly... All of the state seems to have done (VA used to be one of the most right wing states around. Not anymore).
I don't see either candidate winning by more than 5% this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

gore did fairly well in the coalfields.

buchanan, dickenson and russell counties all went for gore.

He did badly for a Democrat in the area