Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shouldn't Sudtirol be in red due to the SVP's membership of the Centrosinistra? Or have I missed something?

They're sort of semi-detached at present. They ran a joint candidate with the PD in the Bolzano division (see the amusing screencap above for details) but their own candidates in the two rural seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why did PD win seats in Milan?

Firstly because the special Silvio Bonus in and around Milan is no more - his image is tarnished and his credibility shattered. And secondly because people with money and investments and therefore an interest in maintaining stability at all costs are about the only people who Renzi's PD ended up having much positive appeal for.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just as a reminder:
LeU ran the most classic left-wing, Corbyn-like campaign (even stealing his motto and proposal on abolishing taxes on university) and got a whopping 3.3%.

So any analysis simply stating that "PD is not left anymore!1!1!!!1" might miss the point on what the Italian society is at the moment.

Yes, it's not about the rhetoric or symbolism particularly, but seeming to offer something relevant to say about the country's social problems. Which MS5 in their crack-addled way do, which Lega in their really gross and despicable way do.* Which none of the parties to the left of centre do - technocratic waffle about 'reform' and hollow nostalgia acts with imported slogans don't really cut it.

Or rather it's not about how left or not the PD is, but the fact that there's no real 'labour party' in Italian political life now, not even a weak one - a conscious choice made a while ago and an error that - mounts hobby horse! - led directly to the MS5 phenomenon.

Which is why as fun as it is to pile on Renzi, these are longterm problems: the entire strategy of the past twenty years was flawed, as I think everyone has known for some time, deep down. The issue I mentioned above has been a point of considerable concern to some observers for a long time. This is just a particularly brutal confirmation. But how to get out of this mess?

_{Obviously, obviously nothing either say would work out in practice, but that's not the issue here.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LeU did achieve their goal of getting Renzi to screw off forever, though.

Yes, if the goal was spite it was met.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Riddled with inaccuracies and paired with brainless captions?

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For some reason Italia Europa Insieme polled 15% of the vote in San Luca. Does this reflect the popularity of the €500 note amongst the worthy citizens of this famously industrious town?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I expect PD to split between Renzi's supporters and a more traditional socialist left wing.

LOL, PD doesn't have a "more traditional socialist left wing" and hasn't had one for a long time.

Yes, it has plenty of people who have an ironic liking for Communist iconography 'because Grandfather' but it would be quite an error to assume that indicates much...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey look, a map of Lazio support by division!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey look, a map of Lazio support by division!

Well, striking that southern support for MSI/DN/AN is gone.

There are some vague echoes in places where they used to be extremely strong, but, yeah. And not just in the south do we see historically interesting (relative) underperformance - they polled notably worse in the Fascist-era New Towns on the former Pontine marshes than in Rome itself, which is not normal. Very poor results as well in Trieste and Bolzano - they finished behind CasaPound in the latter lmao...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Italian social geography is a little bit different to what's normal further north, so things are not quite what they might seem at first. Mark what palandio points out: the 'Left' just polled historically dreadful results in working class districts and banlieues across Italy, which is... er...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

odd map

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In which way?

That it's so even - I wasn't expecting that and had to adjust the keys about a third of the way through.

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Do you have links to results inside cities?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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Fundamental to both parties core electorates is government money - where it is raised, how it is spent and (critically) where it is spent. The Lega has expanded (particularly in recent years) to broader right-wing politics and has chased very effectively a decent slice of the old AN vote, but it is still rooted in a backlash against high levels of personal taxation and transfer of public money towards the South. MS5 stands for whatever enters Grillo's head at any particular moment, but it's clear that a backlash against public austerity and the disappearance of redistribution as a major feature of government policy lies behind its extraordinary showing. And if you note these fact and then observe the support maps of both parties, you start to see why a government of the two would be... um... well... it would probably be quite entertaining, let's say. Which doesn't mean it won't happen o/c! Just that it would be a total fiasco.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

  If the new government does a halfway decent job on the immigration front (say actually doing a significant level of deportations, and keeping the  trend of less migration from the med route on a downward slope) I would think that would shore up support on the right, even if some of the financial proposals turn kind of trainwreckish.

Immigration is a tricky issue though. It's easier to make noises than implement policy... or rather... implement policy that you know will have the desired effect. After a certain point the risk is of running an electoral scam, which can work for quite a while but o/c when the electorate figures out they've been had... what then?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that a lot of people are new to Italian politics in general, the Italian state in particular and very specifically its somewhat complex relationship with the concept of democracy.