Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I do quite like the utterly psychotic way in which the Renzi government goes about its business.

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All hell's breaking loose in Rome...

I'm trying very hard to be surprised but am failing. What's 'told you so' in Italian?

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Te/Ve l'avevo detto.

Diolch yn fawr iawn!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Italian exit polls are basically trash. You have to wait until they're well into the actual counting before you can be sure of anything.

Of course a government that's not popular (it's not hated either but it's not popular) winning a constitutional referendum that it has consistently trailed in the polls for... er... that pretty much doesn't happen.

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It would be like their VERY SUCCESSFUL municipal admin in Rome but on a larger scale.

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Some elements are that sure. But mostly it's just the harnessing of a howl of despair by an egomaniac with an axe to grind.

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The thing you need to remember about Italy is that there's so much variation between different regions that sweeping demographic conclusions are... difficult.

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Democrats and Progressives
Particularly in former PCI strongholds you will find a lot of PD party circles that also serve as a kind of bar for retired men sitting on plastic chairs, playing cards and discussing politics. Some of them may defect to the Democrats and Progressives.

I love this description and intend to steal it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tbh, and as is usually the case, all parts of the Italian Left have been stupid in their own different ways and all shall suffer as a result. It's a depressing situation, though is still potentially salvageable...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/28/berlusconi-woes-voters-tax-breaks-pet-owners-basic-income-italians/

Berlusconi woos voters with tax breaks for pet owners and a basic income for all Italians

What is funny is that it is Berlusconi (and also M5S) that are coming out with "free free free !!"  type schemes and it is the PD that is asking "how to pay for all this", reversing the traditional "Right-Left" paradigm. 

Not traditional for Italy.

Yeah, the Italian "left" has always been more concerned with muh fiscal responsibility than the right.

Let it never be forgotten that in comparatively objective policy terms Italy's two most left-wing governments were both DC ones headed by Andreotti roflmao. Admittedly the second of these was the one the PCI supported from the outside, but the first was a narrow right-wing coalition

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These are the definitive constituencies for 37% of the parliamentary seats elected using the FPTP system

Can you link to more detailed versions if they exist? Wouldn't mind doing a larger one with insets for urban areas if possible...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, for those who have not seen these before:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can you link to more detailed versions if they exist? Wouldn't mind doing a larger one with insets for urban areas if possible...

No unfortunately. I have just this link for the constituencies of the chamber of deputies
http://documenti.camera.it/Leg17/Dossier/Pdf/AC0760A.Pdf

Oh but this is perfect actually! A Map will appear at some point before the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember those! I'd love to see 1996 some day.

Certainly tempting - I had to pause the general project because o/c there were too many big active elections ongoing last year to concentrate on historical maps and I can only do these things in my spare time now. What I'll probably do - I have something relating to the last British GE to finish first - is do a PSI map for my own personal amusement, and then have a go at some for '96.

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Actually that's an interesting thing - in an unintended and quite unnoticed way Italian politics has returned to old habits (supposedly banished forever with the fall of the First Republic) in that formal office has become decoupled from political power, with the position of a politician within his/her party often mattering more than any governmental post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

OK, something I have been wondering about - can anyone explain what the... purpose of the minor parties in the Centre-Left coalition are? like, who are pro-europa and why are they standing?

If I remember to/have the time I think I'm going to produce one of my famous Guides.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incidentally if the sort of patterns seen last time Italy had single member constituencies are repeated then there will be a lot of utterly bizarre results and freak winners.

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Mmm... only a third of seats are FPTP and unless LeU really messes things up for them wrt vote splitting (which doesn't seem particularly likely on present polling) the PD ought to clean up in the old Red Belt.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But what explains the left wing tradition in Tuscany/Emilia-Romagna/Marche/Umbria;

It's the old Red Belt - various political traditions combined with what happened during the War to lead to massive Communist strength throughout the region, the legacy of which endures in various ways despite no one actually believing in Communism anymore. But also it's worth noting that e.g. Tuscany is actually quite industrial.

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It was a stronghold of the left faction in the DCs and so more of the DC vote than was typical transferred over to the PPI and then to the Daisy and eventually the PD.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That sounds very plausible, but keep in mind that Tuscany and Modena-Reggio were not part of the Papal State but are emblematic parts of the Red Belt and that on the other hand large parts of Latium and the Southern Marche were part of the Papal State but are not extremely red.

E.g. the City of Rome voted 51% DC to 27% PCI-PSI in the 1948 election. Even in 1976 the PCI were only barely ahead of the DCs in the city.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, tradition/legacy plays a huge role in Italian political orientation and voting patterns. I find the strong divides that cannot be that easily explained to be even more fascinating than the ones that are easier to explain.

Where would you say had a divide that can't be easily explained? Most of the obvious divides I can think of have some sort of anthropological underpinning.

There are a lot of detailed voting patterns in the South that, frankly, you can only explain by throwing your hands in the air and muttering something about clientelism and not being sure that that really explains matters...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Though that's only an hour later than in the UK, where it is always 10pm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some people in the party are.

Given that one of these people happens to be Grillo, it means that the party is.