UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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Cashcroft has played with his rubber ball again, and bounced in such a way as to produce the following figures: Labour 33, Con 33, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 5

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He does like his short term tactical clever-clever moves.

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Be warned that British voters don't really form blocs in the way that voters do in some other countries. You have a higher number of die-hard partisans and a higher number of people who vote all over the place.

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How tediously petulant.

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Have we been keeping track of the YouGovs? The most recent is: Labour 35, Con 34, UKIP 12, LDem 8, Greens 6.

Apparently they've done one with a larger sample size over several days that shows: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 14, LDem 8, Greens 6.

Meanwhile... and included for forms sake as much as anything else... ComRes: Labour 35, Con 35, UKIP 10, LDem 8, Greens 7

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Jason Zadrozny, the LibDem candidate for Ashfield, has been arrested on child sexual abuse charges. Local paper reports that he's stood down as a candidate and has been suspended by his party.

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Bercow defeats the Government, 228 votes to 202.

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Because we don't have enough polls at the moment, Panelbase have expanded operations beyond Scotland. And they tell us that things are: Labour 34, Con 34, UKIP 15, Greens 6, LDem 5.

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And now we enter the world of last minute retirements; there are always a few of these (largely because they entail - for various practical reasons - a suspension of the usual candidate selection methods). It seems that the first is Geoffrey Robinson (Labour, Coventry North West) who has been an MP since a by-election in 1976.

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Apparently Katie Hopkins has pledged to leave the country if Labour wins. A Labour victory is now guaranteed.

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The trouble with being a new party that profits from corruption scandals is that you have to then be seriously fycking clean yourself, or at least be seen to be.

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Seat 'projections' at this stage are basically trash. Ignore.

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Populus say: Labour 33, Con 31, UKIP 16, LDem 9, Greens 5, Others 6

Only minor changes from their last poll.

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Was the omission of the liberals intentional, Al?

LOL

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ICM have done a poll of London. It shows a very similar pattern to the YouGovs: Labour 42, Con 32, LDem 9, UKIP 9, Greens 8.

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And now we enter the world of last minute retirements; there are always a few of these (largely because they entail - for various practical reasons - a suspension of the usual candidate selection methods). It seems that the first is Geoffrey Robinson (Labour, Coventry North West) who has been an MP since a by-election in 1976.

Or is it? It is now being suggested that maybe he isn't going to retire.

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Mike Hancock, the disgraced ex-LibDem (now Independent) MP for Portsmouth South (who also doubles up as the Kremlin's man in the Commons), is to run for re-election as an Independent.

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Who else finds the prospect of his campaign ghoulishly fascinating? And should we list him as an Independent or as a candidate for United Russia?

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I'm trying to work out a difficult question. Were Handcock (Еди́ная Росси́я - Портсмут) to save his deposit, would I be amused or horrified?

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Unfortunately the new London poll is by ComRes, so there's little point in posting the figures as they might as well have been generated via a dartboard (alas: they are quite pleasing).

The Welsh poll is part of the regular YouGov series and shows: Labour 40, Con 25, UKIP 14, Plaid 11, LDem 5, Greens 5.

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Full Ashcroft/Rubber Ball figures are: Con 36, Labour 34, UKIP 10, Greens 7, LDem 6,

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As we all know, the GOP has an advantage with House seats because Dems tend to be packed in urban districts, leading to a vote waste that swamps whatever the lower turnout may be (particularly in Hispanic seats).  My impression is that the Tories do not have such an advantage in the UK. What is the Reader's Digest version as to why, assuming my assumption is correct?

Broadly speaking Tory and Labour vote patterns relate to class, patterns of which are always going to be more geographically diffuse than urbanity. Additionally the increased regional polarisation since the 1970s means that it's harder for the Tories to win substantial numbers of seats in Northern England than was once the case. If we're comparing to America it also has to be noted that there's no electoral equivalent of 90% D voting black districts in Britain.

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Given that most of their seats were once reliably (if maybe not safely) Conservative, its hard to deny that they're a factor, sure.

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Full YouGov figures: Labour 35, Con 35, UKIP 12, LDem 8, Greens 5

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You should wait until much later than that. Polls can move rapidly in all directions during the campaign period. Still... we should all note (as psephologists, mind, purely as psephologists) that there is a tendency (a tendency not a law, a tendency) for the final results to look not unlike those of the polls of the first phase of the campaign. Don't make assumptions right now (certainly), but keep notes.

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In the eventuality that their seats are important ones regarding parliamentary arithmetic, the DUP will doubtless adopt the traditional Unionist line: MOAR MONIES PLZ.

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After their humiliation last time one wonders why they're bothering.