UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest Ashcroft/Rubber Ball poll: Con 34, Labour 31, UKIP 14, Greens 7, LDem 7

(of course what's going to happen now - you can just tell - is that after a whole campaign doubtless bouncing around in all directions, his final poll will flukishly get it about right).

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And how much to numbers change, or individual races change, due to strategic voting in the end? How many voters engage in strategic voting?

Here's the fun part: it is impossible to tell.

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As its Monday, a new Populus: Labour 34, Con 32, UKIP 14, LDem 8, Green 5

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True enough, though you should also worry when a particularly firm is a bit too bouncy...

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Tonight's YouGov tells the usual picture, but a detail to highlight: LibDems on 5%

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Insert my usual post here (stuck record etc).

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Unionist is hardly a neutral term.

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Anyway I note that Goodwinandford have managed to reach another low: spinning UKIP's embarrassing immigration U-turn as irrelevant because UKIP are special ickle snowflakes. They are an absolute disgrace.

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For some reason a new YouGov/Evening Standard poll of The Great City Babylon, even though the last one is still fresh. Money to burn? Anyway, modest pro-Labour movement from said earlier poll. Figures reported to be:

Labour 44, Con 32, UKIP 10, LDem 7, Greens 5

Which is a swing of around 5pts from 2010; YouGov's national polls are usually showing national swings of between 2pts and 4pts currently.

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As it is Monday, there are more polls:

Populus: Labour 33, Con 32, UKIP 15, LDem 9, Greens 6, Other 6

Ashcroft/BouncyBouncyBall: Con 34, Labour 30, UKIP 15, Greens 8, LDem 5

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Another poll of Wales (usual caveats apply, blah, blah) done by YouGov for ITN:

Labour 39, Con 25, UKIP 14, Plaid 10, Greens 6, LDem 5

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Labour would gain Cardiff North from the Tories and Cardiff Central from the LibDems, while the Tories would gain Brecon & Radnor from the LibDems. Labour would also be pressing very hard in Arfon (Plaid held). Wales doesn't have many marginal seats, basically.

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That's more or less the not particularly secret way the Tories are hoping to squeak out a majority. Hold the line elsewhere and beat the sh!t out of their coalition partner.

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He's doing the usual backtracking.

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And we have ourselves another MORI. Their recent efforts have looked different (though not in the same way), but this one seems to be in the normal range.

Headline figure: Labour 34, Con 33, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 6, Others 6

Of course because MORI is MORI that's a figure for certain-to-votes only. They do not do turnout weighting stuff. The figure for everyone-who-says-anything is: Labour 36, Con 32, UKIP 12, LDem 8, Greens 7, Others 6.

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Populus has shown UKIP moving around a slightly higher range than other firms since they changed their methodology. MORI, on the other hand, shows them moving around in a lower range. The pattern with these two firms is consistent enough that it has to be structural.

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Budget bounces and budget slumps both tend to be pretty transient.

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The DUP and UUP have agreed that backwards is forwards and that sectarian headcounting is the future. DUP to stand down in Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Newry & Armagh, UUP to stand down in East Belfast and North Belfast. Sinn Fein are also keen on the idea and have made requests to the SDLP, who are not.

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Um... it was hardly a no-change election in 2010 given that Peter Robinson lost his seat.

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But logically thought through and well argued, and sometimes that's the main thing.

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Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

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UKIP have suspended an MEP due to accusations of fraud.

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What happened in Israel wasn't so much a late swing to the government as a late swing from a smaller government party to a larger one (and in the context of proportional representation in a heavily pillarised society with a notoriously fragmented electorate: none of these things are true of Britain) so I'm not sure if it's an especially relevant (potential) comparison.

The general pattern, and I must stress pattern rather than rule here, is that real swings - that is, those that show up at the ballot box - during the campaign period proper are normally against the government (the key government recovery period is normally in the months prior to that - a stage we're still in actually) and also that late swings are rare. Of course 1992 reminds us that a pattern is not the same thing as a rule.

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Yet there are only two realistic candidates for Prime Minister. An argument could certainly be made that the public ought to see them duke it out. The reality is that the 'democratic' argument can be used to push for almost any position and that most positions that have been taken are inspired (to a considerable extent) by perceived partisan interest. We all know that notoriously sh!tty debater David Cameron's endlessly shifting final demands over the debates are probably not unconnected to the fact that he is a notoriously sh!tty debater.

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What the hell?!?!?!!?!?!

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Is this some kind of baroque wind-up?