ICM. The Guardian, 22/2

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Statistically Labour and the LibDems stayed were they were in the last ICM poll... the only party with a statistically significant change in support is the Tories.
Still a big majority in theory though.

As for pollsters:

ICM: tends to have a slight pro-Tory bias. As a result it got 2001 more-or-less spot on, but underestimated Labour in 1997. Sample size is usually too small for my liking.
NOP: tends to have a slight pro-Labour bias. Changed methodology after badly over-estimating Labour in 2001... but in the 2003 Welsh elections they actually underestimated Labour
Populus: Are new kids on the block. No track record, although I guess a slight pro-Labour bias, although originally it had a noticable pro-Tory bias. They've since fiddled with the methodology and increased the sample size (it's now the biggest of any poll firm).
MORI: Bob Worcester's outfit. Traditionally had a pro-Labour bias, but after a poor 2001 they radically changed their methodology and may even have a slight pro-Tory bias.
Communication Research: New kids on the block (again). No track record at all. Weight the crap out of their polls.
YouGov: Internet pollsters. Screwed up the 2001 election, and the 2004 Euro and London elections very badly. Entire reputation based on getting the Tory vote in the Scottish elections about right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Guess there will be plenty of more polls between now and May 5.

Yep... loads. Maybe a tracking poll or three. Most polls will get one of the parties very, very wrong though (happens every election)

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Most of the changes in the poll are well within ICM's MoE. Mind you, Labour still win big even with a three point lead (differential turnout etc).

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Eek!
Mind you he needs something like a 7 point win in the PV for that to happen...

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Good point. To hang on to a load of marginals we need a solid turnout in the council estates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well I wouldn't draw too much from the breakdowns of an ICM poll (they're sample sizes are far too small IMO) but as a general point what we're seeing with younger voters in the U.K at the moment is increasing polarisation along class lines (something that can only help Labour) due to all the various government schemes etc. that have helped working class kids a lot.
There were a poll a while ago about first time voters (18 year olds) : Labour had a large lead, the Tories were in second and the LibDems actually did worse than most of their recent national numbers.

Blair, Brown et al may finally have made Wilson's dream come true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't say there is a class split at all, at least along traditional lines. There is a 'have' and 'have not' split however, but its class in reverse. The 'haves' are those who are considered 'disadvantaged' by the govt and find themselves given a hand up into university, poor qualifications still get them entry and loans galore without the worry of paying it back to the same degree. The 'have nots' are those with good grades, middle class kids who are survive on few loans, work part time and are now levied with top up fees. Sounds rather blunt I know, but it is the truth. Labour has undermimed the Higher Education system. It is time the professionals claimed it back. I mean come on, qualifications in FLOWER ARRANGING!

Oh it's very much along traditional class lines... but the boot is on the other foot for a change
There's also a suprising amount of re-distribution of wealth going on as well (local government grants and stuff).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MORI Poll:
Labour 39
Conservatives 37 (Eek!)
Lib Dems 18

Is it me or does this feel a lot more even than it did a few weeks ago?

Strange thing is that the Labour vote is solid. What appears to be happening is that middle class voters are hovering between the Tories and the LibDems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov comes out tomorrow. It's going to be interesting to see what they say.

Just for entertainment value though

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True. Mori also tend to exaggerate any swings or trends.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

you know what, if I was in the UK i'd probably be a swinging voter

Do you know what Section 28 was?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, but like most voters, i'm uninformed

It were a ban on "promoting homosexuality in schools" ("promoting" more or less translates as "talking about") pushed through by the Tories in the '80's and repealed a few years ago.
Howard was a big supporter of it IIRC

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway the latest poll for the FT Today has:
Labour 39
Tory 37
Lib 18

Already been discussed in part. It's interesting that if you adjust for MoE the Labour vote is solid as a rock... it's hardly budged for months.
LibDem and Tory numbers are yo-yo-ing.

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Majority of 90=Want I'd like to see* Big enough to get legislation through, small enough to stop attempts to ram bad legislation through.

*And Roy Hattersley as well o/c

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting... AnyThingYouWantGuv? is swinging into line with the other pollsters... yet again the Labour vote is between 40% and 37%...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We are currently in 'Phoney War' mode with regards to the election. When it is called, Labour's support will fall, but we won't know who benefits- whether Lid Dem or Tory. The most important aspect is GOTV. We all know people who would answer Labour if asked who they would vote for, but who say that they probably won't vote. I've been mulling over this and throwning minor parties into the equation I really do think that a Labour majority of around 20 could appear, perhaps even a hung parliament.

We don't know that Labour support will fall during the campaign. Historically the incumbent party has tended to rise during the campaign (the main exception was 2001).
Also note that all polls now come adjusted for turnout.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Once again the pattern of steady Labour support and yo-yoing Tory/LD support is showing itself. Weird, eh?

This poll causes some severe disapointment with Tory partisans, btw

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New NOP poll in The Independent (15/3/05):

Labour 39% (down 3 on last month); Tories 34% (up four - roll-eyes) and Lib Dems 19%

This would result in (on a straight 2% swing from Labour to the Tories since 2001):

Labour 383 seats, Tories 183 seats and the Liberal Democrats 51 seats - a Labour majority of 120

Dave

The Labour vote is getting weirdly stable (it's about 39% in pretty much all polls)...
Changes seem to be within MoE

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He usually delivers the goods come budget time