2004 Democratic Primary

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True... but Chrétien was just about the only Liberal who could carry St-Maurice in the 1990's

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www.electionprediction.com has finally started doing the Federal election.

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Frank McKenna, former Liberal Premier of New Brunswick, has announced he won't seek a federal seat in the upcoming federal election.  That's bad news for Martin's Liberals, as they're scrambling to catch star candidates.  Their task has been pretty difficult since the outbreak of the Sponsorship Scandal.

Any news on Romanow? Both the Liberals and the NDP were trying to get him to run last I heard.

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Stephen Harper has finally won the CPC leadership contest in the first ballot.

Here's the results aired on CPAC.

Stephen Harper: 15,614.7 points
Belinda Stronach: 9,922.2 points
Tony Clement: 2,663.1 points

Finally some good news for Martin...

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That happend to them in the Ontario election as well...

Most likely seat to change hands: Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Sk=NDP gain from Con

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What good news for Martin? Taking all the 8 Conservative remaining seats in the Atlantic while losing around 40 in the rest of the country? (i.e., minimum of 10 seats to the BQ in Quebec, 20 to the CPC in Ontario, and 10 to the CPC in the West)

Well... not as bad news for Martin. Harper won't win a majority government...

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Vote NDP, I've heard their numbers jumped in Quebec. Quebec!!! NDP can do it!

They have gone from 1% to around 10%. Which in Quebec means no seats unless you get REALLY lucky...

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I got no news on Romanow.  However if he decides to run with the NDP, that would be an upset for the Liberals in Saskatchewan.

I may not be right but it seems Liberals may not get a great pool of star candidates this year.

Romanow is a friend of Chretien... so I guess he won't run for the LPC...

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Atlantic: Lib 23 - Con 8 - NDP 1 (bad news for the NDP...)

Won't happen. The NDP will win at least 3 for sure in NS, and Godin seems safe in NB.

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I don't see the BQ winning that many seats...

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I don't see the Liberals gaining in Saskatchwan... and re-distribution has caused some serious problems for them in Winnepeg.

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The Liberals win 4 seats in Alberta?! They will be lucky to hang on to the 2 they have now...

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The Greenies won't win 10%... I'd assume most of that will go over to the NDP. Uniform swing is a VERY bad idea in BC (the political climate has changed completely...)

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Dunno about that...

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That's actually more like the maximum for the NDP over there, but I agree it's quite possible.

NDP won't lose Halifax or Sackville-Eastern Shore, and would be unlucky to lose Dartmouth-Cole Harbour. They also have a good shot at picking up Sydney-Victoria and the possibility of upsets elsewhere in the province.

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It's possible but unlikely.

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The Liberals are in trouble in Churchill River (though Goodale is safe in Wascana)... and the Liberals had a bad re-distribution (re-districting) in Winnepeg.

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Which ones?

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BC looks very interesting this year

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Beaumont, Centre, East and Strathcona.
But as the NDP is not polling higher in the Maritimes than at the last elections, while the Liberals are, I don't see much scope for upset NDP victories here. Toronto is more interesting in that respect.
On Quebec: I don't think the BQ will win by the kind of margin they have in the polls right now, but if they do, they will knock off all those seats.

The NDP usually gain a few % in Nova Scotia in the last few days of campaigning... (ie: 2003 Provincial election), but they probably won't pick up any seats in NS, other than possibly Sydney-Victoria (which has really strange voting patterns).

I don't see the Liberals winning in Edmonton-Strathcona (as weird as this may seem, the NDP actually have a good chance there...), Edmonton-Beaumont looks safe enough, Edmonton-Centre will be very close (again...) and Edmonton-East is a possible upset.

BTW www.electionprediction.com is working again

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Yeah, I know, I used that just right now for all these swings.
Having been to Edmonton, I actually can't understand how the Alliance could ever win in Strathcona. It's sure got an extremely liberal (American sense) feel. The Southeast of the city, meanwhile, (ie, Beaumont riding) is strongly South Asian. The Southwest though, where I was staying, is terrible. Very affluent suburban nightmare.

The CA won in Strathcona because of vote-splitting. They would win around 40%, the Liberals 30% and the NDP 15%

At least the suburban nightmare only covers part of Edmonton... ALL of Calgary is like that...

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In BC, Campbell is dropping like a stone (yay!) and is dragging anyone with the word "liberal" next to their name on the ballot paper with him.
The LPC should hang on to a couple of Vancouver seats... and maybe win a few in the Lower Mainland IF they are lucky...
Meanwhile support for the CA/CPC has almost halved in BC since 2000...

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Something strange has happend to the NDP recently...

When Alexa McDonough was elected leader, the results of the first ballot looked like this:

1. Svend Robinson (unelectable hard lind leftist)
2. Alexa McDonough (wishy-washy, moderate)
3. Lorne Nystrom (electable, Third Wayer)

Robinson withdrew before the second ballot

But when Layton was elected leader the top 3 were:

1. Jack Layton (electable, pragmatist)
2. Bill Blaikie (electable, Social Gospelite)
3. Lorne Nystrom (electable, Third Wayer)

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My point is that traditionally a hard leftist gets into the top 3 at every NDP leadership convention.
However, when Layton was elected this didn't happen.

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They won't win that much anyway, outside of a couple dozen seats.

I dunno about that... in 1988 they won over 40 seats and if things go there way this year...

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Does the NDP usually vote with the LPC in the parliament?

The NDP vote with the NDP

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New Poll:

National

LPC 38%
CPC 27%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 5%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 28%
NDP 17%

Quebec

BQ 44%
LPC 33%
CPC 8%
NDP 6%

Atlantic

LPC 47%
CPC 31%
NDP 14%

Sask/Manitoba

LPC 31%
NDP 30%
CPC 28%

British Columbia

CPC 38%
LPC 28%
NDP 18%

Alberta

CPC 54% (Rednecks)
LPC 28%
NDP 11%

Who by?

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I don't like the BC result. I don't like it at all.
Otherwise it's pretty much unchanged from the last poll.

The BC numbers have been jumping around a lot recently... mostly statistical noise I'd guess (if I remember correctly the MoE for a provincial breakdown is about 7%=not very accurate) I think a proper poll done their would be very helpfull...

BTW polls always underestimate the strength of the BC NDP.

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Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

Siege40

Yeah but you don't get loads of Conservatives everywhere in BC... sure Prince George and "The Valley"* are scary, scary places... but Vancouver and it's inner suburbs are left wing, as is Vancouver Island (my cousin has moved back to Nanaimo, BTW) and most of the interior (ie: Kamloops) is more populist than anything else.

*The Fraser Valley, of course

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Just what is the story with Alberta? Is it all conservative?
What about Edmonton, how does that vote? That's blue collar isn't it?

Edmonton is a moderate City with areas of Liberal and NDP support (the only non-Conservative MLA's in Alberta and the only non-CPC MP's in Alberta are from Edmonton).
Calgary is about as right wing as Cities get, and most of rural Alberta is full of... er... Rednecks.
The far-northern riding (Athabasca) is potentially competative due to a high First Nations population.
Alberta is very conservative because it is paranoid about Ontario.

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I think that the CPC might finish a distant third in urban ontario...just a vibe..

That looks quite likely... (call it the Layton-Miller effect) but they are probably going to give the Liberals a scare in the "905" suburbs.

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I live in the 905. Nice place, it will likely go Liberal, Conservative, and NDP. Usually the 905 work as a block, however, I think that since this election is really getting close I think that the 905 could break on the issues. But I content that the Cons might not do too well here, or the Liberals, they have a bad taste in their mouths from both the Federal and Provincial levels for both parties.
Siege40

Depending on how the 905 is defined, the NDP have a good chance at picking up a few blue collar ridings in the area: Oshawa (Chretienist MP ditched for Martinite...), Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (see Oshawa), Welland

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I've sent a few predictions to www.electionprediction.com, and although there are a lot of good quality predictions, yet again partizan idiots have raised their ugly heads... the worst offenders (and by a long way) are the Tory supporters, many of which cannot understand that CA+PC does Not=CPC...
However those predictions don't seem to have been given a lot (if any) weight by the editorial people.
Worth a look.

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I've noticed that www.electionprediction.com uses the new ridings for predicting the coming Canadian Federal Election.  It may be that they have information to suggest that Martin, hoping for the sponsorship scandal to die down, will not drop the writ until August 25 or later, and having people make predictions for both the old and new ridings would be very confusing.  Parties have already started chosing nominees for the election (presumably for the new ridings) though, which makes me wonder if it isn't set in stone that the new ridings will be used for the next election, whenever it is called and held.  Can somebody confirm one way or the other if it is certain that the new ridings will be used?  And if not, can someone tell me if the parties are choosing nominees for the old ridings, the new ridings, both, or if it varies from party to party and riding to riding?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

The parties are selecting candidates for the new ridings and are acting as though the new ones will certainly be used.