2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That a common term form the area?

It seems to be as I've checked local media websites etc and the term is used a lot to refer to Southern Virginia.

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There's no reason why they can't. I hope they don't do what they did last time they were popular...

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The NDP are a Democratic Socialist/Social Democratic party, while the Liberals are an old fashioned "Lloyd George/Woodrow Wilson" style liberal party, that somehow managed to suvive as the "Natural party of government" (and that's one hell of an achievment)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's been a funding scandel involving the Liberal Party recently, and their support has dropped dramatically:

LPC: 39%
CPC: 24%
NDP: 18%

By region:

Atlantic: LPC=42%, CPC=33%, NDP=19%
Quebec: LPC=40%, CPC=5%, NDP=8%, BQ=?
Ontario: LPC=47%, CPC=25%, NDP=22%
Praries: LPC=32%, CPC=23%, NDP=33%
Alberta: LPC=28%, CPC=50%, NDP=16%
BC: LPC=27%, CPC=35%, NDP=22%
Ipsos Reid

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder why...

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Yes, so I'd like to see another firms poll to be sure (preferably Environics) but I don't doubt that the funding scandal has hurt the Liberals in the short term... in the long term I'm not so sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would guess that it'll only have a short term impact in Quebec, the decline of seperatism isn't likely to get stopped by a funding scandal (if it was John Swinney would be the First Minister of Scotland now [shudders]), and it's hardly had an effect at all in the Atlantic provinces... but it *might* be more lasting out West... if only because of an innate mistrust (in the Praries)/paranoia (in Alberta) of all things Ottawa.

Martin will win the election regardless, but unless this blows over he could be lumbered with a minority government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What the scandal seems to have done is destroy all of Martin's cultivation of Western voters... they actually look like numbers from the '80's...

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That's true...

BTW I wouldn't worry about the CPC winning... they won't be able to win a majority and the NDP will end up propping up a minority LPC government.
That's how Trudeau got started...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not in the West...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hamilton-Stoney Creek is on the NDP Target/Covet list, while St Maurice-Champlain is on the BQ Target list (now that "the Little Guy" has finally retired)...

My guess is that the NDP will certainly pick up a minimum of 2 seats in the Praries (a bit of a no-brainer actually. Two CA/CPC seats in Sask were won by razor thin margins in 2000 and the CA/CPC has dropped a lot in the Praries since then) and quite possibily even more.
How many they get overall is a mystery though (and hinges on Ontario and BC).

It *looks* as though the BQ will pickup St Maurice-Champlain (from what I gather they have coveted it for years)... and will probably gain back all the seats they lost in the by-elections.
My cousin thinks that the BQ might form an alliance with the NDP, on the basis that there stance on certain aspects of domestic policy and there voters are very similer.

I don't see the CPC winning as I doubt they can win a majority, and neither the NDP or the BQ is likely to prop them up.

The Martin wing of the LPC seems to be attacking the "Old Liberals" (as in "Old Bolsheviks") and it *might* cause a split (ala Labour in the early 80's) in which case all bets are off.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Try: www.polticalresources.net

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My mistake. It's actually: www.politicalresources.net

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Okay...So the liberals aren't as bad of as I orginially thought.

the NDP has lost their lead in the plains...and everything else seems to be staying the same.  Thanks.

All three parties are inside the margin of error for the Praries... which is normal (mind you NDP support is usually underestimated in Saskatchwan), and if those were the actual figures I would guess the NDP would win a plurality of Prarie seats.
One weird thing is the NDP's support in Alberta and BC... compare to this time last year and you'll see what I mean.
Martin would still end up with a minority government with those figures, but he would probably avoid the embarrassment of having to haggle with the BQ

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the CPC want to put Martin under pressure they should go with Stronach. If they want to let Martin off the hook, they will go with Harper...

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That's weird... I would have thought that Harper being the ex-leader of the CA would hurt him a lot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's weird... I would have thought that Harper being the ex-leader of the CA would hurt him a lot.

Yeah that's quite surprising.  Weirder is that a year ago we were talking about a record majority for Martin ...

As Harold Wilson said: "A week is a long time in politics"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Ekos poll also queried on federal vote intentions.

Source: the Toronto Star

Federal voting intentions in Canada

LPC 42%
CPC 32%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%

Partial Regional Breakdown

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 40%
LPC 38%
NDP 15%

NDP on 15% in Quebec??

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Look on the bright side: even if Martin is reduced to minority status he probably won't have to humiliate himself by striking a deal with the BQ

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The Liberals are also hurt in BC by the word "Liberal". Martin needs to distance himself from Gordon Campbell (who's numbers have been dropping like a stone recently: the BCLibs now trial the BCNDP. And that's assuming the Greenies don't tactical vote)

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Looks like the Bloc have re-asserted themselves. Amazing how much damage a scandal can do really.

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When was that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That may be caused by the random sample.  It might be just luck for the NDP in Quebec.  Maybe Ekos called more people than usual in Mercier, QC.

I'd guessed something like that. 10% seems (just about) plausible... 15% seems waaay to high

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Ah. Who'd be most likely to try to topple him?
BTW the NDP have given Copps the finger

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I'm sure the BQ will appreciate the irony of that.
"What goes around, comes around"

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2 months? And he did *nothing*
I had always assumed he was a canny operater...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It looks as though Martin had been complacent...
I knew that Chretien had dodged a hellofalot of scandels over the years (I remember something about a hotel), and it's strange that Martin doesn't seem to be able to do the same.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Copp's will probably run as an Independent Liberal (the NDP were not happy about her staying in the Liberal primary), which could result in the NDP (who have re-bounded in Eastern Hamilton of late) coming up the middle. (Yes, I said the middle)

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There is no way that the CPC will do as well out west as the CA did last time round.

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Yeah... one of the most interesting trends in Ontario recently has been the NDP in Northern Ontario (Hampton was re-elected with 60% I recall...)

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The trend is up. In 1999 Hampton won with about 45% (can't remember the exact figure), in 2003 he won with 60%
In 2003 the NDP's vote went up for the first time since 1992, but they suffered a net loss of seats, mainly because of a lame-duck incumbent in Sault-Ste-Marie, a retirement in Hamilton West (where the NDP's vote went up, but the Tories collapsed=Liberal gain), and because they polled best in Liberal held seats.

[Actually, the one result in 2003 that suprised me was Oshawa. I had assumed that:
a) the NDP were forever dead in Oshawa
b) it would be a close fight between the Liberals and the Tory incumbent.
In the event, the Tory incumbent was re-elected by a small margin... over the NDP's candidate (the Liberal came third).
I was glad that I didn't put money on a horse that day...]

However the trend is likely to be even more visible in the federal election, as the federal Liberals are weaker in Northern Ontario than the Ontario Liberals (look at the two Thunder Bay seats)

The NDP have always been a predominantly western party, and run Saskatchwan and Manitoba (2 of there strongest provinces federally).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Excellent post

Not a lot I can add really...

Except: I just looked at the Canadian Parliament's website (it has a huge election results archive), and I've noticed that the NDP usually come second in Ottawa Centre.
With a star candidate like Broadbent, the NDP have a good shot at picking it up in a by-election.

St-Maurice-Champlain doesn't vote Liberal... it votes Chrétien (local boy come good syndrome).
No Chrétien=probable BQ pickup.