French referendum: exit poll in details

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I guess French conservative = American Democrat.

No. No, no, no, no, no. And another no.

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What would be the consequences of a failure of "Oui!"?

I think the whole thing would fall flat on it's face... and because France votes before the U.K it would save me having to waste valuable hours reading through the thing (I'm undecided how to vote on the E.U Constitution see...)

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Looking close

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So "extreme left" is more left than the Communists, Socialists, and Greens?

Yes. France is an amazingly polarised country.

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Getting veeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyy close

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41% undecided? Ooh...

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The second thing, says the pollster, is the entry in the campaign of Laurent Fabius, Former socialist PM and a leader of the "no".

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Minister criticised Chirac over referendum

Patrick Wintour, chief political correspondent
Friday May 20, 2005
The Guardian

A no vote in next week's French referendum on the European constitution would be caused by the inept leadership and unpopularity of the French president, Jacques Chirac, Tony Blair was warned last month in a memo drawn up by his then Europe minister, Denis MacShane.

The document, which was circulated to key ministers including the foreign secretary, Jack Straw, and the industry secretary, Patricia Hewitt, was leaked yesterday at a sensitive moment in the French referendum campaign.


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Its publication will embarrass Downing Street, which has been anxious not to appear to intervene in the close-fought French battle.
The memo, dated April 8 and also sent to the prime minister's European adviser, Kim Darroch, accused the French political class of a "lack of leadership in explaining, defending, promoting the EU ... not as extension of France and French interests".

"Bashing a commission president is now a French as much as it was a British pastime," it claimed.

Mr MacShane, a knowledgeable pro-European, lambasted the French yes campaign for "the incoherence of its campaign with its mixed messages and lack of enthusiasm or positive argument for the treaty."

He also claimed that French ministers were undertaking a belated bid to turn the position around by "making crude UK-bashing arguments".

In his note Mr MacShane, who lost his job as Europe minister in the reshuffle - after the memo was written - went on to urge the prime minister to change the tone of British relations with Europe.

"[Britain's] EU presidency in 1998 was when the new Labour government walked on water," he said. "That is no longer the case ... John Bull and Whitehall-speak needs to be parked for the six months of the presidency.

"Britain's Europe policy will need a step change to move away from the defensive-boastful language of red line, vetoes, [and claiming] Britain is way ahead of the rest of Europe," he wrote.

"If the UK is to rise to the responsibility of helping to lead Europe out of crisis we will have to find more of Churchill's magnanimity and worry less about the Rothermere-Telegraph shadows in the cave".

If France did vote yes, Mr MacShane added, Britain would have to run a distinctive pro-Euro campaign in which the comedian Eddie Izzard, Sir Digby Jones, director general of the CBI, and Brendan Barber, general secretary of the TUC, would be more important than any cabinet minister.

French opposition to the constitution stemmed from the hugely unpopular EU enlargement, he said, which French voters believe is diverting "their CAP cash to eastern Europe and the Balkans".

He argued that the French regarded Turkey, a poor Muslim nation, as "a threat to secular, rich, nationalist France".

He also warned Mr Blair that there was no prospect of a successful renegotiation of the treaty in the event of a French no vote, a view widely shared in the Foreign Office.

He claimed that in the event of a no, "the treaty ratification timetable will be dead.

"The Dutch referendum is on June 1, but whichever way they vote will be irrelevant," he wrote. "The Danish ambassador told me yester day there would be no point in having the referendum planned for September 27 in Denmark. His fellow Nordic and Baltic colleagues at the breakfast all agreed the treaty would be dead."

He added that if French voters do reject the constitution French politicians would demand an alternative that Britain could not sign up to.

"They would demand a wholly unacceptable rewriting of the treaty in favour of protectionist, illiberal and anti-business policies."

Signs that the French intend to take a relatively aggressive stance in event of a no vote were confirmed yesterday when Mr Chirac led new calls for a renegotiation of Britain's EU budget rebate, first negotiated by Margaret Thatcher.

President Chirac has met his German and Polish colleagues to demand changes to the £3bn British rebate as a matter of urgency.

Mr Chirac, eager to shore up his authority in the event of a no vote, is also likely to demand a change of tone in British calls for a deregulated labour market. Some in Paris may also call on France to revert to its traditional close relationship with Germany.

In a speech today, the new Europe minister, Douglas Alexander, will show no sign of planning to relent on Britain's pro-economic reform campaign in the EU.

He will promise that the British presidency, which begins in July, "will take action to help business by advancing the better regulation agenda. We will act to assist the financial services industry."

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1) Macshane is foolish too

Oh yes. He's known for it

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Which is more or less MacShane's point

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Seems like the honourable member for Rotherham was right then